11/16/22W Uptrend The UPTREND hesitates to rise more above its 50-day line.
THE MARKET’s MESSAGE: UPtrend hesitates to rise more above its 50-day line
I was waiting for a pullback after the extraordinary 8-day Nasdaq rise of 12% -- the steepest rise in over 7 months! And Wednesday gave us:
· a whimpering 1.5% drop on lower volume – not enough to offsetmy enthusiasm for the recent 2-week rise.
Looking back a year since the market hit its Corona virus all-time high, we see the Nasdaq’s personality has been to:
· fall below its 200-day moving average line, then
· rise back to its 200-day moving average line before
· falling to a new low.
At some point, “low” will be low enough, and the Nasdaq will probably recover in a mighty rise. We just don’t know when.
· I am encouraged by the steepness of the current rise with its strong volume on recent rising days (see first chart above).
· And I am cautious about recent succession of lower lows
Wednesday's market: Nasdaq and S&P500 fall but the lighter volume indicates weak support for the drop - perhaps uncertainty.
Looking at the Accumulation/Distribution table below, I am quite encouraged by the rise in “A”and “B” rated stock in Investors.com’s Accumulation/Distribution counts – a jump of 16% in just 1 week. Even if the 11/9 count of B rated stocks is wrong, the rise from the week before, the 11% two week rise from 11/2 to 11/16 of the A plus the B is extraordinary!
The extraordinary 2 week rise shows some serious buying is going on!
As I explained yesterday, “Yes, we have quite a distance to go to recover the territory lost this year. But we could take some serious ground on that recovery by year end. If we do, I want to be on the buying side during that move."
Please read on…… for Important commentary on the current market.
Wishing you, “Many Happy Returns!”
Charlotte Hudgin, The Armchair Investor, (214) 995-6702
Only 2 of the last 20 trading days were distribution (selling) days – days when the price fell with higher volume.
The MARKET ACTION table below still amazes me!
Only 2distribution days (selling days when the market falls on higher volume) out of the last 4 weeks is deep sign of strength..
The MARKET FACTORS table summarizes the current marketstrength and direction.
Ratings to Note:
· 8accumulation days versus 2 distribution days in the last 20 trading days saysthe buyers are ruling this market.
· All 3major indexes (Nasdaq DJIA and S&P500) are B rated again indicating buying rules.
· All three indexes are above their 50-day lines.
And finally the last entry on this table, note how far the major indexes have fallen below their highs a year ago. But the journey back up may have already begun – not all 3 indexes have started the climb off their 2022 lows.