12/12/22M Uptrend – All Major Indexes rise 1.3% or more with higher volume***

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12/12/22M  Uptrend – All Major Indexes rise 1.3% or more withhigher volume***

THE MARKET’s MESSAGE:  Nasdaq and S&P500 indexes stay pinned between their50-day and 200-day lines, lower from 8 days ago.

MONDAY’S MARKET:

Volume rose back to the 50-day average level for the Nasdaq. The volume for the S&P500 ended 10% below its 50-day moving average line, virtually unchanged from Friday’s volume.

The November consumer price index is due before the market opens on Tuesday. IBD said, “Economists expect a dip from October’s pace… Even if the CPI comes in cooler, it may not satisfy the Fed.” That implies the Fed may continue raising its discount rate.

As IBD reported today, Chair Jerome Powell has called the personal consumption expenditures index the most important inflation gauge. That index gives greater weight to the prices of services rather than goods. Services have been showing greater upward price pressure than goods through most of 2022.

Let’ssee how the market opens Tuesday in response to the November consumer price index announcement.

NOTE: Sometimes, there is little to do but wait for important, market-moving announcements.

NOTE ABOUT THE CHANGE IN VOLUMESOURCE I USE.

*** What’s going on with Investors.com’svolume reporting? I know that IBD has recently changed their data feeds and I wastold by an inside IBD source that change caused some confusion. But thedifference between the daily volume changes for the Nasdaq from theInvestors.com site and the MarketSmith chart is huge today:

         Nasdaq volume changes from Friday 12/9 to Monday12/12 on the two sources:

                   Investors.com         -   0.6.%

                   MarketSmith           + 11.2%        

The two indexes have alwaysbeen slightly different due to cut-off times and inclusion of volume from secondarysources (additional markets.) Monday’s Big Picture simply said, “Volume rose onthe Nasdaq” which did NOT match the investors.com home page results.

Volume is important inunderstanding the market’s signals. To identify an accumulation (buying) day ordistribution (selling) day, the market must have higher volume than theday before. I know the two sites use difference sources (including secondarymarkets and have different cut-off times,) but in the past they have usuallyhad closer results. Monday’s difference was huge (shown above)!

My 32 years of followingInvestors.com leads me to choose MarketSmith as the more consistent source.That means the Nasdaq index’s daily volume numbers I show may not match the banneracross the top of the Investors.com home page. I welcome your comments.

Focus on the last 12 trading days (see them on the MARKET ACTION (Nasdaq) OVER LAST20 DAYS table below.). It is not apretty site – only one accumulation (buying)  day. Compare that one buying day to the 5distribution days of selling when the price drops and the volume rises.

Winners are out there. TheAccumulation/Distribution table below shows a recent sell-off of the stocks with strong “A” or “B” ratings – a 10% drop in just one weekis a big move. Be sure to review your individual stocks.

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Focus on the last 12 trading days on the MARKET ACTIN table below. It is not a pretty site –only one accumulation day. Compared to 5 distribution days – days of sellingwhen the price drops and the volume rises.

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I am disappointed that it looks like the Market will not recover to its 2021 ending prices. That wouldmake 2022 a rare (but periodically expected) down year.

STOCK WATCHING:  Send your suggestion on which stock to follow in this newsletter.  I am looking for just one stock at a time, for training purposes.

Wishingyou and yours a happy and safe holiday season.

Charlotte Hudgin, The ArmchairInvestor,   (214)995-6702

www.ArmchairInvestor.com   (214)995-6702   editor@armchairinvestor.com

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