2/09/2023H Uptrend day 23, Nasdaq has First Distribution Day in over 3 weeks.
THE MARKET’s MESSAGE: Nasdaq slowly dips lower. Volume lighter.
I can’t complain about the market when it is up 12.7% in the first 6 weeks of 2023.
But beware – Just 6 days ago, it was up an exciting 16.6% for the news year. But in the market, we know what goes up will, eventually, come down (at least part way.)
In the last 6 days, the Nasdq has drifted downward in a quite consistent manner – on lighter volume and earned its second Distribution day in the last . Perhaps the excitement of the new year has passed. But I am still excited about the 11.9% Armchair Investor return so far this year.
Note on the chart above, the recent 5-day drop has teamed with declining volume. Perhaps this is a sign that the pull back adjustment is almost complete. Stay tuned.
I have not been a fan of the Dow Jones Industrial Average since the 1990’s when I was the captive financial advisor of a major Wall Street firm and forced to use it. It was good training in how many Wall Street advisors manage their clients’ accounts to achieve average market returns. But once I retired at the end of 1999 and the market had that hug correction (Nasdaq lost 78% in 2 ½ years), I had learned to NOT play by standard advisor rules. “Buy & Hold” especially went on my “No Go” list of useful strategies.
Instead, by actually watching what the market is doing, I learned to capture much of the rises, and step out during much of the drops. The training in the brutal early 2000’s is what generated the development of this Armchair Investor newsletter and its extraordinary, long-term returns.
On the MARKET FACTORS table of the last20 trading days (later in this newsletter), note the Nasdaq Accumulation/Distribution rating is still a very strong A- and the S&P500is an above-average B.
The rising market strength shows up in the growth of “A” and “B” ratings over the last 4 weeks from 55% to today’s 64%.
We’ve talked about the strength of the Nasdaq as shown in the table below. And you can see the Thursday’s second distribution day in this 20-day (4 week) list. Two distribution days in the last 20 trading days, is extraordinary.
Notice the Green highlights in the Price column. A green highlighted price means it is the highest price in the last 20 days. Yes! The MARKET ACTION table shows how consistently the 2023 market is rising…. And so is your portfolio, I hope!
On the MARKET FACTORS table below, the only red is at the bottom – showing how far the major indexes have risen above their end of 2022 highs.
>>>>> BOTTOM LINE: This market continues to rise, showing strength – I hope you are “riding the rise” and grinning as much as I am!