2/17/2023F Nasdaq and S&P500 Give Back Some of the Recent 3-day’s Rise.
THE MARKET’s MESSAGE: Nasdaq falls back below 12,000 with higher volume!
Let me start by explaining why this newsletter is getting out so late on a 3-day weekend.
You probably know that Investors.com is my main data source. There are 2 parts of their site: Investors.com and MarketSmith … and they don’t alwaysmatch. But Friday’s numbers were still being updated at 5:30 p.m. on Sunday and still aren’t close on volume.
So here is my best consolidated conclusion about Friday and last week…. Note: most sites don’t argue (much) about closing prices– the last trade by the closing bell is the closing price for the day. No argument from on Friday’s closing prices. Here are Friday’s closing price changes::
Nasdaq - 0.6%
S&P500 - 0.3%
But the volume may still be open to discussion because MarketSmith’s prices are not settled – I think it has to do with incorporating IBD’s new partner. Hang on – it will all settle down shortly, I suspect.
Today was the first time I’d seen the Investors.com home page and the MarketSmith home page have exactly opposite volume moves (one showed the end-of-day Nasdaq volume up and the NYSE volume down. And the other showed vice versa.) My suggestion: Go with what is certain – the price movements are the simplest– last price is reported and rarely changes.
(By the way – Give IBD a break here. They are working hard to integrate with their new partner data feed and I believe we will end up with a richer set of tools when it all settles down.)
OVERALL: Over the last 2 trading days (as of Friday), both indexes took serious hits:.
· The Nasdaq dropped 4.0%
· The S&P500 dropped 2.8%
Let’s hope that was the worst of the market’s reaction to the Fed’s intentions.
On the following table, note the last 10 trading days have shown weakness in the current market – 7 of the last 11 days were down days! Ack!
BUT NOTE: after the month and a half run-up I don’t expect to hear much complaining. You should be in a positive position for the year-to-date,
On the MARKET FACTORS table below, you should see some WARNINGS!
The only red boxes are the number of down days in the last 10 trading days – which is now 6 of the 10. And, as always, at the bottom – showing how far the major indexes ARE STILL BELOW THEIR HIGHS of 2021-2022. (They almost always will be above recent lows.)
On the ACCUMULATION/DISTRIBUTION table below, notice the percent of A and B stocks (under Accumulation) has declined from 71% 2 weeks ago, to 59% today.
That decline says there is more sellers than buyers in the current market. Perhaps this is a reaction(a cooling off period) to the fast buying in the first 5 weeks of this year.
>>>>> BOTTOM LINE: This market may have taken a “breather” but is now resting below the 12,000 Nasdaq level. Stay tuned!