2023-10-02M Downtrend Day 8 – I CONTINUE to WAIT in CASH and am considering a purchase on Tuesday.
· The Nasdaq rose Monday, but its volume dropped.
· On the other hand, the S&P500 and DJIA were flat or lagged a smidge.
· On the good news side: Be sure to note how strongly the Nasdaq has out-performed the S&P500and the DJIA this year. (see the GROWTH OF THE MAJOR INDEXES
It was another quiet day in the market. And even with the quiet day shown above, the Nasdaq still won for the best advance (although it was a small win.)
The WEEKLY STOCK ACCUMULATION/DISTRIBUTION GROWTH table below points to the lagging market. But I am NOT disappointed…..
When you look at the Nasdaq chart below, you might be impressed that the Nasdaq added another rising day on Monday – that’s 4 days rising days in a row.
Tonight, let’s look at the QQQ over 2023.
The QQQ had quite a run-up in the first half of 2023.
· The QQQ rose 49.4% from its low at the end of 2022 to amazing high #1 on July 19, 2023. WOW
· The QQQ then made a significant drop followed by 2 more lower rises, but has not show much new “power!”
Note : When I talk about a “Power Move,” I see higher volume as the stock rises,frequently accompanied with lower volume as the stock falls.
If you time your investing in the market as it starts to rise, it is frequently possible to catch some of those intermediate rises. But please watch the market (and this newsletter) each night, so you can get in and out near key pivot points.
We still have almost 3 months left in 2023. Has the market played out its market rises for the year? With all the political turmoil and budgets causing serious debates, I am not betting (yet) that this market has another rise in the last quarter.
And you probably know, even when I give my opinion,….. the market can do something else the next day. I can jump ship and rise that horse whichever direction it is going.
I repeat: Look below at how the 3 major indexes have done this year (as of 9/29/2023).
I hope you rode the Nasdaq up through July… and then exited as it gave back a significant part of the July gains….selling with a nice profit this year (much more than the current Nasdaq year-to-date return since I encouraged you to exit weeks ago.) Even if you held on to the Nasdaq and rode it down during its August-September dips, you still have a nice 25% gain this year!
I’m sure you are not surprised at the biggest winner (the Nasdaq) and noted the continued struggling S&P500 and the drowning DJIA.
Look at the 20-day HISTORY of the NASDAQ with PRICE & VOLUME (shown below.)
I am willing to get back in the market when it shows a serious push to the up-side, but right now ALL MAJOR INDEXES ARE FALLING ..... AND HAPPILY..... WITHOUT ME!
PLEASE NOTE: the QQQ is still up 36.9% this year. I AM not COMPLAINING!
Two of the last 4 days gave back some of this year’s gains./
>>>> Here is MONDAY’s closing NASDAQ chart.
CASH IS A FINE PLACE TO PUT YOUR MONEY WHEN THE MARKET IS FALLING ESPECIALLY IF YOU ARE UNCOMFORTABLE WITH HOLDING AN “INVERSE” ETF, YET.
For those of you who are more aggressive in a falling market, remember the major indexes have inverse ETFs that grow when the market is falling.
CHARLOTTE’S PROGNOSIS FOR THE NEAR FUTURE
(As of Monday):
My current MARKET thoughts…..
>>>>I do see we just had 4 rising days in the QQQ and TQQQ (my usual choice in arising market.) Perhaps there is more ground to take in the last 3 months ofthis year.
>>>>> Am I likely to buy some more QQQ (or a multiple such as the TQQQ) at the end of Monday if it has a price rise with higher volume (perhaps mid-day if the reaction to congress’s budget action gets a positive response. (It appears much of the budget disagreements are being worked out for at least the short term.)
Please examine the ACCUMULATION/DISTRIBUTION RATINGS TABLE BELOW…… The A and B rated stocks continue to fade away,reflecting the weakness of the recent market.
>>>> Siting on the sidelines when a market is creeping lower is a good strategy!
>>>> THE DOWNTURN OF THE ACCUMULATION RATINGS is a WARNING of UNDERLYING MARKET WEAKNESS!
Monday’s slight rise of the major indexes ON HIGHER VOLUME…. points to a lack of interest in a rising market.
>>>>> A confirmation of the current weakness in this Uptrend showed up Monday as the A & B rated stocks dropped from 46%3 weeks ago to 29% today. (Yikes!)
I hope you followed my lead and sold your rising indexes and now wait in CASH. An aggressive believer in the continuation of this downtrend and might short some stocks. I am happy with having sold my QQQ and waiting in cash. But if this DOWNTREND continues with strength (volume), I may short it.
One additional “Word to the Wise”…
>>>>>--- MOST MARKETS FALL FASTER THAN THEY RISE!
Please send questions, comments,suggestions ideas and requests to: My text message account at(214) 995-6702.