2023-10-06F UPtrend Day 1 – Friday’s Rise Across All Three Major Indexes on Higher Volume showed a NEW UPTREND has begun!

October 8, 2023

2023-10-06F  UPtrend Day 1 – Friday’s Rise Across All Three Major Indexes on Higher Volume showed a NEW UPTREND has begun!

FRIDAY’S HIGHLIGHTS:  

Investor’s Business Daily called Friday’s Nasdaq rise of 1.6% market rise a “Major surge.” Pair the price move with the 3% rise in volume and we have a new MARKET FOLLOW-THROUGH day which signals a NEW UPTREND.

Yes, even with the volume below average, a Follow-through day needs only higher volume than the day before.  And you are right, the more volume, the stronger the signal. But this one, with the 1.6% Nasdaq price rise is a great. Do you see how the Nasdaq price move stands out!

On the next chart, note how the Nasdaq has risen 28.3% this year compared to the S&P500’s 12.2% and the poor Dow Jones Industrial Average which, apparently, is gasping for air. Choosing between the Nasdaq, S&P500 and (yawn) the DJIA is not a hard decision.

I hope the chart above makes it clear that the Nasdaq is the index to follow in a rising market. Even after the market dip over the last2+ months, the Nasdaq ()NDQC) has more than doubled the return of the S&P500. And I won’t embarrass the DJIA folks by a Nasdaq comparison when the DJIA return for the 2023 year is less than 1%.

The S&P500 and the DJIA also rose in price supported with higher volume for a Major Accumulation day for the S&P500. The DJIA just missed the “Major” designation by 0.1%. (The Major Accumulation  or Distribution designation is reserved in this newsletter for moves of at least 1% Up or Down. Thus the DJIA (a frequent laggard) did not make the “Major” cut.

·       On the good news side: Be sure to note how strongly the Nasdaq has out-performed the S&P500 and the DJIA this year. (see the GROWTH OF THE MAJOR INDEXES two charts below.)

If you invested in the S&P500 instead of the Nasdaq last Thursday at the market close, by Friday you would have earned 25% less than the Nasdaq.

If you invested in the DJIA instead of the Nasdaq last Thursday at the market close, by Friday you would have earned 45% less than the Nasdaq.

I don’t care what my Dad told me about these indexes, the Nasdaq is the clear, long-term winner in today’s market.

How did the market react to Friday’s employment report from the Labor Department?  Note that all three indexes “popped” higher.(They liked it.)

WHAT’SNEXT?

I want to see how the market moves on Monday. We are still in sleepy October.

PLEASEREMEMBER:

If this new Uptrend holds,… so will I!

If it fails, there is no shame in exiting a sinking ship. But I have a good feel about the timing.  The summer vacations are mostly finished. The traders are back at their desks. And the last quarter is underway! With the first few hints of a good market, I am optimistic.  But , “No!” I will not go on vacation and not track the market daily.  “She is a fickle wench!”

WHATABOUT THE QQQs?

Add some daily volume to the Nasdaq and a continued rise (even a gentle one) which keep me in the QQQ. In fact, I am watching for a second confirmation of this new Uptrend to move into a multiple QQQ position.

 

On the 20-day history of the Nasdaq, I really want to see a few more accumulation days (when price and volume rise together.)

When will the Nasdaq pop its head back above its 50-day moving average line?

Now look at what a NEW UPTREND looks like on the MARKET FACTOR, COUNTS & RATINGS table. Wow! look at all the green!

>>> I am looking for a rise in the market after the recent 2 1/2  month correction. A good way to verify that positive movement would be to see the rightmost column in the WEEKLY ACCUMULATION/DISTRIBUTION RATINGS of STOCKS table below (labeled ”A+B”) start moving higher. When the number of stocks with A or B ratings rise, I know there is serious money flowing into the stock market.

 

One additional “Word to the Wise”…

>>>>>--- MOST MARKETS FALL FASTER THAN THEY RISE so give this market some time to reclaim (and beat??) its prior highs.!  

Please send questions, comments, suggestions, ideas and requests to:   My text message account at(214) 995-6702.

Wishing you, “Many Happy Returns.”

Charlotte  Hudgin, The Armchair Investor,                                              

www.ArmchairInvestor.com   (214)995-6702   

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