2023-10-10T UPtrend Day 3 – Today you will see the market moving in a NEW UPTREND.
On Columbus day, the banks were closed but the markets were open. (You can note that on Columbus day in future years.) Many traders take the holiday anyway. Monday was a usually a non-eventful Columbus day,
The Nasdaq rose as much as 1/7% but closed in the bottom half of the day’s trading range with a respectable 0.58% rise Tuesday. (Traders were slow to get back to their desks.)
A New UPTREND surge began on Friday as shown below. Tuesday was day 3 of the new Uptrend. The major indexes had moderate rises with volume rising but still well below the average. Look at today’s price bar and note the stock opened with a gap up, rose to slightly above it’s 50-day (red) line, then fizzled back below. Encouraging note:Tuesday’s volume was well above Monday’s.. It looks like the traders are getting back to work.
A reminder: No matter which index you first learned about when studying the market….. the Nasdaq will usually rise faster than the S&P500 which will rise faster than the DJIA.
BUT REMEMBER: In a downtrend, the reverse happens: The Nasdaq falls the faster so it is your responsibility to watch the market and get your money out when a downtrend occurs.
The harder they rise,…. The harder they fall. (The chart below only shows the indexes through last Friday. But it is enough to get the message: The Nasday is winning!
I hope the chart above makes it clear that the Nasdaq is the index to follow in a rising market. Even after the market dip over the last 2+ months, the Nasdaq (0NDQC) has more than doubled the return of the S&P500.
On Thursday of last week DJIA started an impressive 2.4%rise over the next 3 days. The higher flying Nasdaq beat the DJIA over those 3days by only 0.2%. But I am NOT moving any money onto the DJIA nor S&P500plates.
On the good news side: Be sure to note how strongly the Nasdaq has out-performed the S&P500and the DJIA for all of this year. (see the GROWTH OF THE MAJOR INDEXES 2charts/tables below.)
If you invested in the S&P500 instead of the Nasdaq last Thursday at the market close, by Friday you would have earned 25% less than the Nasdaq.
If you invested in the DJIA instead of the Nasdaq last Thursday at the market close, by Friday you would have earned 45% less than the Nasdaq.
I don’t care what my Dad told me about these indexes, the Nasdaq is the clear,long-term winner in today’s market. And is usually the winner day-to-day in a rising market.
I want to see how the market moves on Tuesday as the traders get back to work. We are still in sleepy October.
PLEASE REMEMBER: If this new Uptrend holds,…so will I!
If the Uptrend fails, there is no shame in exiting a sinking ship. But I have a good feeling about the timing. The summer vacations are mostly finished. The traders are coming back at their desks. And the last quarter is underway! With the first few hints of a good market, I am optimistic. But , “No!” I will not go on vacation until the end-of-year holidays gang up on us.
WHAT ABOUT THE QQQs?
Add some daily volume to the Nasdaq and a continued rise (even a gentle one) which keep me in the QQQ. In fact, I am watching for a second confirmation of this new Uptrend to move into a multiple QQQ position.
On the 20-dayhistory of the Nasdaq, I really want to see a few more accumulation days (when price and volume rise together.)
>>>When will the Nasdaq pop its head back above its 50-day moving average line? It could be Wednesday. The Nasdaq rose 7 of the last 10 days…. and only one day fell with higher volume to create a distribution day.. Stay tuned. Hmmmm 7 days UP versus 2 day down. I’d call that an UPTREND hint!!.
Now look at what a NEW UPTREND looks like on the MARKET FACTOR, COUNTS &RATINGS table below. Wow! look at all the green!
>>> I am looking for a rise in the market after the recent 2 1/2 month correction. A good way to verify that positive movement would be to see the rightmost column in the WEEKLY ACCUMULATION/DISTRIBUTION RATINGS of STOCKS table below (labeled ”A+B”) start moving higher. When the number of stocks with A or B ratings rise, I know there is serious money flowing into the stock market.
One additional “Word to the Wise”…
>>>>>--- MOST MARKETS FALL FASTER THAN THEY RISE so give this market some time to reclaim (and beat??) its prior highs.!
Please send questions, comments, suggestions, ideas and requests to: My text message account at(214) 995-6702.