2023-10-12H UPtrend Day 5 – The Uptrend climb continues, driving above its 50-day line!!!
Today, the market continued rising on day 5 of the NEW UPTREND. Yes, the bad news is that it was a distribution days of selling.
Note on the Nasdaq 9-month chart below….. Yes, the major indexes lost ground today, but I am encouraged that the last two weeks showed 10 rising days and only 2 down days.
The Nasdaq continues to rise, step by step. And the Nasdaq continues to out-perform the S&P500 which is outperforming the poor DJIA.
I am excited that the Nasdaq has made such a consistent rise over the last 2 weeks. ….See my note after the Nasdaq chart below. Should you be concerned about today’s distribution days? Look closely at the rise in the last 3 weeks on the following chart. My question is…. are the low-volume blue bars an indication that the uptrend is out of steam? Or just the slow October? The 4.7% gain over the last 3 weeks is attractive to me. My compromise is – I will not get in the triple QQQ (TQQQ) until I feel the supportive volume of this rise.
A reminder: No matter which index you first learned about when studying the market….. the Nasdaq will usually rise faster than the S&P500 which will rise faster than the DJIA.
BUT REMEMBER: In a downtrend, the reverse happens: The Nasdaq falls the faster so it is your responsibility to watch the market and get your money out when a downtrend occurs.
And the harder they rise,…. the harder they fall.
Even after the market dip over the last 2+ months, the Nasdaq (0NDQC) has more than doubled the return of the S&P500.
I want to see how the market moves on Thursday. I expect the volume is lower because of the war in the middle east. Who knows what the impact will be….?
>>>> PLEASE REMEMBER: If this new Uptrend holds,…so will I!
If the Uptrend fails, there is no shame in exiting a sinking ship. But I have a good feeling about the timing. The summer vacations are mostly finished. The traders are coming back at their desks. And the last quarter is underway! With the first few hints of a good market, I am optimistic. But , “No!” I will not go on vacation until the end-of-year has reported in.
WHAT ABOUT THE QQQs? Consider investing in the TQQQ (the Triple QQQ ETF) in a strong Uptrend and in the Inverse QQQs (SQQQ) in a downturn.
Add some daily volume to the Nasdaq and a continued rise (even a gentle one) which has allowed me to return significant earnings in the TQQQ this year. In fact, I am watching for a second confirmation of this new Uptrend to move into a multiple QQQ position.
On the 20-day history of the Nasdaq, I really want to see a few more accumulation days (when price and volume rise together.)
>>> When will the Nasdaq pop its head back above its 50-day moving average line? It could be Wednesday. The Nasdaq rose 6 of the last 10 days…. and only one day fell with higher volume to create a distribution day.. Stay tuned
Now look at how the NEW UPTREND looks on the MARKET FACTOR, COUNTS &RATINGS table below. Wow! look at all the green!
>>> I am looking for a rise in the market after the recent 2 1/2 month correction. A good way to verify that positive movement would be to see the rightmost column in the WEEKLY ACCUMULATION/DISTRIBUTION RATINGS of STOCKS table below (labeled ”A+B”) start moving higher, a s it did today. When the number of stocks with A or B ratings rise, I know there is serious money flowing into the stock market.
>>>CAN YOU SEE THE TURN UP IN THE STOCK BUYING OVER THE LAST WEEK? The count of A and B rated stocks rose from 23% a week ago to 32% today.
One additional “Word to the Wise”…
>>>>>--- MOST MARKETS FALL FASTER THAN THEY RISE so give this market some time to reclaim (and beat??) its prior highs.!
Please send questions, comments,suggestions, ideas and requests to: My text message account at(214) 995-6702.