2024-05-09H Armchair Investor Newsletter. Nasdaq and S&P500 Hold Near March-April Highs with Higher Volume on Down Days

May 9, 2024

2024-05-09H Armchair Investor Newsletter. Nasdaq andS&P500 Hold Near March-April Highs with Higher Volume on Down Days

The Nasdaq hasheld near its April highs for 2 ½ months! Is it the summer doldrums hitting early?

The market dipped in April then climbed back up to the March highs in the first week of May (this week.) That’s 7-weeks without moving past that March high.  Also look at the FLAT volume over the last 8 weeks while the Nasdaq price dipped then recovered.  

>>>>Almost all of the higher volume day over the last 7 weeks were DOWN DAYS. See the chart below.

>>> I repeat… If you are not yet in this market, consider watching for asignificant day (or 2 or 3 days) that break through to a new high with higher volume to get back in. The Nasdaq is NOT showing upside strength.  

Is this the summer doldrums? Or something else?  I don’t know – but I am most concerned about all the higher red volume bars indicating more selling than buying.  

>>>MY CURRENT ACTION PLAN:  Wait in CASH and Watch daily for a breakout to a new high!

After climbing higher over the last 2 ½ weeks (which was really just a recovery after the April dip,) the Nasdaq is again stalled near the March – April highs. That’s 9 weeks of the market hitting its head on a Nasdaq high that has gone…… nowhere.

Tuesday’s,Wednesday’s and Thursday’s market moves were barely visible. The Nasdaq appears stuck!

HERE’S THE BIG NEWS – HOW DID THE EXCHANE TRADED FUNDS FARE SINCE THEIR RECENT LOWS?

>>>>THE ETF TABLE BELOW COULD BE YOUR TICKET TO EARLY RETIREMENT. BE SURE TO WATCH THE ETFs DAILY.

Look at these 2024 gains below!

Focus on the TQQQ I hope you have been in the TQQQ (triple QQQ) for much of this runup.

>>> I’m sure you see why betting on the TQQQ in a powerful upturn is a beautiful way to grab a nice return!

NOTE:  Iam NEVER shy about selling a stock to pocket a profit or to stop losing money in it. But Monday’s and Tuesday’s significant volume drop makes me wonder whether the holders of the TQQQ are getting shy???

The TQQQ has been a real winner for me.  I am still quite excited about the rises of the TQQQ!  

IF YOU ARE NEWTO THIS STOCK TRADING GAME, please consider tracking the stocks you are interested on “paper” before you invest heavily in them. You can learn what signs to look for in the price and volume action before you invest heavily in the stocks you are interested in.  It’s called….

 

PAPER TRADING:  If you aren’t comfortable getting in the inverse QQQ (or triplei nverse QQQ called the SQQQ), consider holding a small position ON PAPER (which means you don’t buy any of the stock, but you track it on paper as if you had… to see how great the market treats you!)

For your information: The TRIPLE SHORT QQQ  is the SQQQ.

If you missed my note and chart about the SQQQ (the triple short QQQ), just think “inverse.” 

That’s what“ shorting” a stock does. That short position in the SQQQ will rise when the QQQ and TQQQ fall.

It may seems trange, but the charts will look very similar…. Until you do the math and see the 3x factor in the pricing.

>>>What can we do when the TQQQ is falling? (see chart below) Justsell the TQQQ (or any other QQQ you own), and  wait in CASH….. If the TQQQ continues to fall, buy the inverse – the SQQQ which will rise when the TQQQ is falling. That is what an “inverse” stock does.

NOTE: I will fix the 20-day History of the Nasdaq Price & Volume table over the weekend.  It needs today’s data – but also a whole new design to allow it to be updated each day to reflect the current Nasdaq price, volume, etc.

.................................................................................5/9/24 ...$16,346.26 ....-0.2% ......-11.4%...........12............Neither...............Neither

he last line in the table above (the app would not let me add it - I will fix it over the weekend.%...

>>>MY CURRENT ACTION PLAN:  Hold the TQQQ!

Comment: Ihave not earned as much playing the S&P500 as do in the TQQQ. So I staywith 100% of my investments in the TQQQ or SQQQ when the market is clearly falling.

 

>>>The Accumulation/Distribution table for the current market has an error which I cannot fix quickly.  I hope to have it back up for Monday’s newsletter.

The only way we will know which way the market is moving is to watch the market….. each day.)  

Please consider reviewing this newsletter daily:  The markets can change direction and strength quickly!

NOTE THIS WARNING.  Holding onto a falling stock, (whether an ETF or the stock or a favorite company), is a quick way to lose your recent gains. I f you play individual stocks and ETF’s, play carefully. Use the real returns (daily, weekly, monthly)

IT IS COMMON FOR STOCKS, ETFs, AND FUNDS TO FALL FASTER THAN THEY RISE.

Of course, I do not sell a position that has been rising well after one or two small down days. But if you had a significant loss over several days, especially if there is an increase in market distribution days (down days on higher volume),then stepping out and waiting in cash can help you save your portfolio for future rallies and lets you sleep at night.

>>>>Stay tuned for Thursday’s and Friday’s results!

 One additional “Word to the Wise”…

>>>MOST MARKETS FALL FASTER THAN THEY RISE. Beware of buying any new positions unless they are very healthy.

Wishing you best returns in your portfolio!.

 

 

Charlotte Hudgin, The Armchair Investor

(214) 99506702

May your portfolio grow bigger every day like this girrafe

!

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