3/02/2023Th Major indexes hold near 200-day lines. Is this start of new Uptrend?

3/02/2023Th   Major indexes hold near 200-day lines. Isthis start of new Uptrend?

THE MARKET’s MESSAGE:  Nasdaq &S&P500 50-day lines are holding close to 200-day lines extending sideways action, showing indecision.

Because Dallas just went through a tornado watch with multiple touchdowns, I was unable to start my ArmchairInvestor newsletter prep until about an hour and a half ago. (Yes, there was at least one tornado, but not in my neighborhood. We still stayed safe inside until we got an “all-safe” signal.)  

The S&P500 and Nasdaq are still fidgeting around their 50-day lines.

I repeat my look at the recent price moves of the S&P500 (above) and the Nasdaq (much like the S&P500.)  Think of the higher highs (tops) and higher lows (bottoms) echoing each other as the market rises. Failing to achieve the next step (a higher high) would be a warning that this upward run may be over.

Now you know one chart signal to watch for! It’s not the rising prices that show the market is in a healthy rise. Every market will have ups and downs. It’s the “lunges higher” and achieving a new highs (and the support of the rising lows) that allow me to see the constant market buying….. I know it won’t go on forever, but this is a nice ride while it continues.  Please note,now that the highs have risen sell above both the 200-day and 50-day lines, I will carefully watch for a sideways period that could turn into a new top.

Look at the DAILY MARKET ACTION tablebelow and note that the Uptrend continues.

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Overall, I am getting quite concerned about the health of this uptrend.

Look over the last 20 trading days listed on the following table. Can you see the hints of market weakness I see? (listed below)  Don’t peak at the answers which are listed after the table.  Take the opportunity to study the last 20 days of market action and draw your own conclusions.  

Then compare your conclusions to mine after the MARKET FACTORS table below.

 On the MARKET ACTION and FACTOR, COUNTS & RATINGS tables note:

·       Of the 6 accumulation (buying) days in the last 20 days shown below, only one accumulation day is in the last 9 trading days. The others are older (less relevant,) all grouped in the older 11 days. THAT IS A SIGN OF AN UNFAVORABLE CHANGE IN MARKET PERSONALITY!

·       A healthy ratio of rising leader stocks to falling leader stocks is 1.5 orhigher. Today, it has fallen to 1.2, showing weakness.

·       In the last 9 trading days, only two days rose significantly (more than 0.2%).  

·       Note the DJIA’s accumulation/distribution rating has fallen to a D (Ugh).

On the MARKET ACTION and FACTOR, COUNTS & RATINGS tables note:

·       Of the 6 accumulation (buying) days in the last 20 days shown below, only one accumulation day is in the last 9 trading days. The others are older (less relevant,) all grouped in the older 11 days.THAT IS A SIGN OF AN UNFAVORABLE CHANGE IN MARKET PERSONALITY!

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·       A healthy ratio of rising leader stocks to falling leader stocks is 1.5 or higher. Today, it has fallen to 1.2, showing weakness.

·       In the last 9 trading days, only two days rose significantly (more than 0.2%).  

·       Note the DJIA’s accumulation/distribution rating has fallen to a D (Ugh).

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ONE MORE VERY IMPORTANT NOTE: Notice in the ACCUMULATION/DISTRIBUTION table above – see how fast the As and Bs fell? In the rightmost column, note the drop from 62% As and Bs only 2 weeks ago to 48% today!

 WOW! That shows some significant selling is going on!Please consider NOT holding on the stocks that are being sold off.  A long time ago, I learned (after paying forthis lesson multiple times…..)  ...... I learned that I am NOT smarter than the market.

Wishing you, “Many Happy Returns.”

CharlotteHudgin, The Armchair Investor,  (214)995-6702

www.ArmchairInvestor.com   (214)995-6702   editor@armchairinvestor.com  

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2023 ACI NEWSLETTER sent via WEBFLOW

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