4/14/2023F UPTREND day 12 After Thursday’s big ACCUMULATION DAY, the market went home early on Friday.

4/14/2023F  UPTREND day 12   After Thursday’s big ACCUMULATION DAY, the  market went home early on Friday.

THE MARKET’S MESSAGE:  It is time to layout your plan for how to build your portfolio in today’s rising market!

Did you know that just 7 companies make up over 50% of the Nasdaq100, based on the value of the companies’ stock.

Be sure to read my discussion of the above chart provided by Invesco.com and Genuineimpact.substack.com….. later in this newsletter.  

(IF YOU CAN’T WAIT TO SEE MY IDEAS ON THE STRONGEST “ of the NASDAQ,” jump down in this newsletter, past the usual tables.)

>>>> FIRST, LET’S TAKE A DEEPER LOOK INTO WHICH STOCKS ARE TOP PERFORMERS RIGHT NOW!

>>>> So let’s go back to NASDAQ 1-yearperformance:  And notice how the Nasdaq is doing compared to its 50-dayline.   Except for a couple of days in March, the Nasdaq has stayed above its 50-day line since it first broke above it in the second week of January this year. Yes, the last two IBD direction calls (3/10 and 3/29) were late.

Wooah!  What happened to the Nasdaq’s out-performing the other “sleepy” indexes???   Well, the more they rise, the harder they fall. So you should not expect  the Nasdaq to outperform the S&P500, the DJIA or the even the NYSE in all markets. Remember: The Nasdaq typically rises and falls faster than the other major indexes. Which means YOU CAN MAKE MORE MONEY in the Nasdaq if you are willing to move into it during Uptrends and move out of it in Downtrends. And occasionally,a signal won’t work.  The key is to get out as soon as the index (Nasdaq or NYSE) reverses.

I include the following table because sometimes, I am asked about it.  But mostly, it is useless to my buying and selling decisions. The “Highs” refer to the most recent highs that happened around the end of 2022 and beginning of 2023 depending on the index.

But step back and relish the Nasdaq’s superior overall returns.

As we look back at the 2023 returns of several strategies, please remember that I am most concerned about TOTAL RETURNS over the lifetime of my portfolio. Yes, I want to win every year, but I know there are going to be some losing periods.

My next big project to is pull together the annual returns (with all the Armchair Investor  buys and sells.)  I will show the market “Buy & Hold” returns and the Armchair returns from the last 5+ years.

>>>>Join us for NEW DFW ARMCHAIR INVESTOR MEETUPS.

Right now there are two Meetups per month (open to anyone, subject to the capacity of each venue.)

·       May 4 LIVE class (in person) In Fort Worth on the first Thursday of the month at Ol’ South Pancake house subject to changes for holidays or Investor’s Business Daily events.

·       APRIL20 ONLINE for Dallas on the Thursday of the month subject to holidays or Investor’s Business Daily events . Please reserve you seat at Meetup.com. Look for the Dallas IBD Meetup or the Fort Worth IBD Meetup(register on Meetup.com)  Call Charlotte if you aren’t sure how to join us for these Meetups.

·       Do you want to bring back “live” Investor’s Business Meetups to Dallas?  Please volunteer to find a place to meet. It could be a library, business office meeting room, classroom, or a restaurant with a private meeting room.  

·       Our dearly departed Nick Pollard used to know all the best restaurant meeting rooms and their managers and arranged many of the monthly Meetup locations for us.  And I am sure some of you have noticed private meeting rooms in restaurants that would be great for an Investor’s Business Daily Meetup. Please contact them and see what it would take to meet there.  I can bring my projector.

If any of you have ideas on restaurants would like to help me out with the IBD Dallas Meetups

NOTICE:  IF YOU LIVE NEAR FORT WORTH, PLEASE CONSIDER JOINING US in person on the first Thursday each month. The next FW in person Meetup will be THURSDAY, May 4 at our favorite, OL’ SOUTH PANCAKE HOUSE. They have welcomed us back!  But they have no way to broadcast the Meetup so it is limited to attending in person (I come over on the TRE train.)

Whichever Meetup you wish to attend,…

·       BE SURE TO REGISTER ON THE MEETUP SITE. Seating is limited to the room they give us.  We will have a private room setup for us. If we have a big group, we are more likely to get the back room with their new BIG SCREEN TV to show the slides and charts!

·      OL’ SOUTH HAS MADE A LEGITIMATE REQUEST - ALL ATTENDEES MUST ORDER A MEAL, single or multi-course is OK. YOU CAN EAT IT THERE OR TAKE IT HOME.

QUESTIONS OR SUGGESTIONS?? Please call, Charlotte  Hudgin, (214) 995-6702.

Thursday was a solid Major Accumulation day for the Nasdaq. Even though the S&P500 and the DJIA also had solid rising days on Thursday, they gained much less than my favorite Nasdaq.

·       The S&P500 fell 35% short of the Nasdaq’s 2% gain and

·       The DJIA fell 45% short.

Remember, the market ha only completed a little more than 25% of the 2023 so far.

The ACCUMULATION/DISTRIBUTION RATINGS table gives you a nice indicator in the rightmost column for seeing if the market is buying-up or selling-down the market.  The right column (sum of the count of A and B rated stocks) is rising showing the market is feeding the increased buying pressure.

Looking over the last 20 trading days, I start with the “Type of Day” column to see if there is more serious buying (accumulation days) or more serious selling (distribution days.) In the last 9 days, there were

·      3 distribution(selling) days,

·      5 “neither”(low volume days – a sign of indetermination).

·      And only 1accumulation (buying) day.

I am deeply rooting for the market to start buying strong stocks. If this happens,we will see for accumulation days in the market and in individual stocks.

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Notice in the MARKET FACTORS, COUNTS & RATINGS table below there is good news!:

·       The market is on the 12^th day of this Uptrend (that’s 2 and a half weeks.)

·       The RISING/FALLING RATIO OF LEADER STOCKS is a strong 1.5

·       The Nasdaq Accumulation rating is a B+ (sorry about those Ds for the S&P500 and DJIA)

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>>>> NOW LET’S TAKE A DEEPER LOOK INTO WHICH ARE TOP PERFORMERS OF THE BIG STOCKS….. RIGHT NOW!

Note Microsoft and Apple have almost the same value (that note is irrelevant but just offered to keep you from getting them mixed up.) Together, those two stocks add up to about 25% (1/4^TH) of the whole Nasdaq100!  

If you have been following these two behemoths, you have a nice start to an impressive portfolio – not because they are so big, but because they have earned nice growth. (But BIG VALUE is not the same as those stocks that are growing the fastest today.)

Here is a comparison chart of price growth of those 7 companies over almost 10  years. Interesting but does NOT tell you which has the hottest current growth. And you must be careful when looking at LINEAR charts like the 10-year chart below. NVDIA certainly looks like the big winner on this chart.   Let’s see.

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Which of the 7 leaders, is the fastest growing today? I see NVDA at the top. But I also notice two weeks of its price dropping. And only TSLA also fell over that period

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Soooooo!  Should I focus on a shorter time frame? How about just the last month and a half? Who’s the winner now?   Look below…..

That new timeframe certainly points at 1 winner META which has bee leading the pack most of this period. And TSLA sure is the current loser. In order of these 6-week winners:

·       META (UP28% in the last 6 weeks) is number 1

·       GOOGLE (up 20%) is number 2

·       NVDA (up 18%) is number 3

·       MSFT (up 16%) is number 4

·       last 3 AAPL (up 14%), AMZN (up11%) and TSLA (down 9%).

BOTTOM LINE: When I invest in a new stock, I look for great performance, verify it has great ratings.   I look back at that performance over a reasonable period of time as we did above.

Then I want to see a stock that has earned my attention RIGHT NOW! to be sure it is still HOT!  

Meta has grown the most in the last 3 1/2 weeks (+27.7%).

I am always looking for a stock to “go the distance.”   And as with a bad date, I have no problem saying, “Good night,” early if the evening is not going well.

Are you registered on the current www.ArmchairInvestor.com site?

If so, you will receive a BRIEF email from me after I post this newsletter each night to tell you, as soon as possible, when it is available for your review..  If you don’t get that message, just click on the popup invitation that appears when you go to the www.ArmchairInvestor.com website (the one listed above) and register.

>>>>>I will appreciate any feedback you have for me. Please send comments and ideas to

…………………..Editor@armchairinvestor.com

Wishing you, “Many Happy Returns.”

Charlotte  Hudgin, The Armchair Investor,  (214)995-6702

www.ArmchairInvestor.com   (214)995-6702   editor@armchairinvestor.com  

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