4/26/2023W UPTREND under Pressure Day 20 Nasdaq has minor recovery, but…

4/26/2023W UPTREND under Pressure Day 20  Nasdaq has minor recovery, but…

THE MARKET’S MESSAGE:  Good news! The Nasdaq found support at its 50-day line Tuesday, and closed higher Wednesday.

As you examine the Nasdaq year-to-date chart below, note the good news:

·      The Nasdaq price held above its 50-day moving average (black) line on Tuesday,

·      Closed higher today (Wednesday)! And

·      Had volume that was above the average (see yellow arrow) for the first time over 3 weeks.

·      The recent Nasdaq high was a high that matched two other recent highs at the since August of last year. Let’s watch to see if this is the rise that carries more weight and keeps going.

Those 3 comments are nice positives about this market, and put together they give me hope that this market may take off. But I am not dumping a lot of money in this market…. yet!

Note that I took the time to set up tracking of the QQQ trend-following calculation.  Now I know why I was not excited to jump into it. The return of catching the QQQ with the rising market signals has a 6% gain for the first almost third of this year. Much less than a Buy & Hold strategy. And I hate underperforming the Buy & Hold alternative.  

But note:  If the market keeps up this return, it would give investors 18% return for the year – not a bad gain, especially in this funky market.

Over the weekend, I will pull up the Armchair gains for the last few years. And I hope you will be as excited as I am about what this strategy can return!

Again, the Nasdaq outperformed the “other guys” Wednesday.

Looking over the MARKET ACTION OVER THE LAST 20 DAYS table below, I start with the “Type of Day” column to see if there is more serious buying (accumulation days) or more serious selling(distribution days.)

In the last 10 days (2 weeks). the market had a quite positive run.:

·      3 accumulation(buying) days

·      No distribution (selling ) days

·      7 days were “consistent with” an uptrend and not one was “consistent with” a downtrend.

Every Uptrend has moments of hesitation. Let’s let the market tell us if this will be a market top or is just taking a breath.

I am concerned about the economy and specifically the banking weakness showing up.

Reviewing the MARKET FACTORS, COUNTS &RATINGS table below, note there is GOOD NEWS HERE!

·      The market is on the 20^th day of this Uptrend, that’s 4 weeks.  Note: I usually make more money in an Uptrending market. Don’t you?

·      The RISING/FALLING RATIO OF LEADER STOCKS remains a neutral 1.0..

·      The Nasdaq Accumulation rating is a solid B (sorry about that D for the S&P500 and  E for the DJIA indicating there are more sellers than buyers.).If you hold some of those lagging indexes, I hope it’s not too much. I don't hold them and suggest you rethink that strategy if you do.

·      NOTE :  The day’s closing price for all three indexes shifted back to “at their 50-day lines” – again confirming the higher number of buyers than sellers in this market

And just for your reference…..

The ACCUMULATION/DISTRIBUTION TABLE tells me that the was a very small dip in the A and B stocks over the last week..  The As and Bs still own 45%of all the stocks – almost half!  And that tells me it should not be too hard to find some strong stocks to invest in when I am confident the market is rising again.

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Wishing you, “Many Happy Returns.”

CharlotteHudgin, The Armchair Investor,   (214)995-6702

www.ArmchairInvestor.com   (214)995-6702   editor@armchairinvestor.com  

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