4/28/2023F UPTREND under PRESSURE Day 22 QQQ up 3.6% over last 3 DAYS!!

4/28/2023F UPTREND under PRESSURE Day 22  QQQ up 3.6% over last 3 DAYS!!

THE MARKET’S MESSAGE:  Nasdaq shows Accumulation (net market buying) over the  last 3 days

The QQQ rose 4.1% in the final 3 days of last week on volume that was higher than Monday's & Tuesday's downward drop at the start of the week, thus ending the week higher.

NOTE: Don’t be surprised if I focus on the QQQ moves more than the Nasdaq as a whole. You and I can’t invest in the whole Nasdaq so I don’t make money in Nasdaq moves.  But I use is as a leader in the market and enjoy making money in the Nasdaq100 (which is a basket of the 100 largest non-financial stocks in the Nasdaq.)  Why the non-financial stocks? Historically, they have just not moved as much as the rest of the Nasdaq. That is why the QQQ does NOT include banks and other financial institutions.

If you don’t believe me, just look at this 10-year chart of the Nasdaq vs the Nasdaq100 (the QQQ.) Yes, the 2 investments don’t seem to end very far apart when you look at them both on the same timeline.  But after 10 years, would you rather have invested in:

>>> the 0NDQC (Nasdaq index) which earned 267.30% or

>>> the QQQ which earned 356.11% (almost 90% more)?  

And, “yes” I am frustrated that the Armchair Investor return is not outperforming the “Buy& Hold” strategy,  But hang on.  The year is just one-third done.  And the current 8.9% return year-to-date is a good return for a third of the year, especially coming out of a 33.0% drop last year (in the QQQ.)

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Plus realize…if you had gotten in and out with the Armchair Investor signals in this newsletter, you would be way ahead of just buying and holding the QQQ over the last 10 and 22+ years (since the market crash in 2000- 2003.)

Stay tuned, I will pull it all together over the last 10years shortly and show you the year-by-year exceptional growth we have earned even after including the recent market correction.

BACK TO BUSINESS……

How do you know when to get into and hold the QQQ. It is, of course, your choice.  I do not tell you when to make those moves. I tell you when I make those moves. Follow me or don’t. Your choice. And “buy & hold” 16.8% is a very nice earnings over the first 4 months of 2023. Beware….. a “Buy & Hold” strategy rarely out-performs the Armchair signals.  But this year, so far, is an exception.

So far this year, the QQQ strategy has earned +8.9% over the first 4 months.  If it continues to earn that much, for both of the last two 3-month periods, it will earn 29.1% in 2023.   I am NOT promising that return.  I just want you to see there is time to continue this year’s growth.

Again, the Nasdaq just about matched the performance of the “other guys” Friday. This Uptrend just had its 21st day and it is very close to popping out above the January high. But two other attempted highs in the last 4 weeks failed.  I am rooting for a new high breakout.

Looking over the MARKET ACTION OVER THE LAST 20 DAYS table below, I start with the “Type of Day” column to see if there is more serious buying (accumulation days) or more serious selling (distribution days.)

In the last 12 trading days, the Nasdaq had:

·      4 accumulation(buying) days in the last 12 days

·      No distribution (selling ) days in the last 12 days

·      8 days were“consistent with” an uptrend and only last Thursday was “consistent with” a downtrend.

Every Uptrend has moments of hesitation.Let’s let the market tell us if this will be a market top or is just taking a breath.

Reviewing the MARKET FACTORS, COUNTS & RATINGS table below, note there is GOOD NEWS HERE!

·       The market is on the 22nd day of this Uptrend, that’s 4+ weeks.  Note: I usually make more money in an Uptrending market. Don’t you?

·       The RISING/FALLING RATIO OF LEADER STOCKS remains a neutral 1.0..

·       The Nasdaq Accumulation rating is a solid B (sorry about that D- for the S&P500and  E for the DJIA indicating they have more sellers than buyers.).If you hold some of those lagging indexes, I hope it’s not too much. I don't hold them and suggest you rethink that strategy if you do.

·      NOTE : The day’s closing price for all three indexes popped higher – again confirming the higher number of buyers than sellers in this market

The ACCUMULATION/DISTRIBUTION TABLE tells me that the was a small dip in the A and B stocks over the last2 weeks..  The As and Bs still own 42% of all the stocks – almost half!  That tells me it should not be too hard to find some strong stocks to invest in when I am confident the market is rising again.

But note: the As & Bs have dropped over the last 2 weeks from 47% to 42%, a minor drop which points to some net selling (profit taking???)

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>>>>>I appreciate any feedback you have for me. Please send comments and ideas to:

Editor@armchairinvestor.com

Wishing you, “Many Happy Returns.”

Charlotte Hudgin, The Armchair Investor,  

www.ArmchairInvestor.com   (214)995-6702   editor@armchairinvestor.com

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