5/11/2023H UPTREND Day 31 under PRESSURE Market looks up as Nasdaq has Major Accumulation Day!

5-11-2023h-uptrend-day-31-under-pressure-market-looks-up-as-nasdaq-has-major-accumulation-day

THE MARKET’S MESSAGE   The Nasdaq’s continued rise on Wednesday hints that a strong Uptrend could be forming. Stay tuned!

To identify the strong market moves, I look for an above-average price move with above-average volume. Note that volume can be less than the day before but still above-average to signal a strong move.

As I watched the Nasdaq rise in price over Wednesday and Thursday, I also noticed the volume hit just “average” volume on Wednesday and fell to 10% below average volume on Thursday. So the Thursday rise did not have higher volume behind it indicating a question of the market’s support for the rise.

Please note that one lower volume day does not kill  a stock’s breakout.  

The Tuesday, 5/10 Nasdaq price rise with higher volume was encouraging.

The Wednesday price rise without volume support was disappointing…. but does NOT kill the deal.  No uptrend goes up with higher volume every day. Stay tuned!

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In the meantime, I will watch as the Nasdaq continues to rise, making money as I did back in 2021, during the start of the pandemic.

Note there is only 1 day in the last 9 trading days that had an accumulation day as shown in the table above.  (Price AND volume rose on May 2.)

Reviewing the MARKET FACTORS, COUNTS & RATINGS table below, note there is GOOD NEWS >>>>> (Updated 5/11):

·       The RISING/FALLING RATIO OF LEADER STOCKS has slowly risen to 1.3, above neutral (which would be 1.0).

·       The Nasdaq Accumulation rating is a solid B+ (sorry about that C- for the S&P500 and  D- for the DJIA indicating they have more sellers than buyers.).

·       If you hold some of those lagging indexes (S&P500, DJIA, and others), I hope your position is not too large. I don't hold them and suggest you rethink that strategy if you do. Some of the “old safe indexes” are now losing money or making a lot less than they have in the past. YES,,,, the price moves on 5/5 (+2.2%) and yesterday, 5/10 (+1.0%) were pleasant rises. But without a consistent strong volume statement like the +19.2% on Wednesday, I’m not convinced the new Uptrend isn’t tenuous. I don’t need 19% but a few +5% volume moves or more on days with a higher prices more would give me comfort.

·       Thus, I am NOT heavily jumping into this market…..yet! But I AM BUILDING MY WATCH LIST to invest in when I am convinced the new Uptrend is not only here, but strong enough to keep going.

·       I’d rather be a couple of days late to get into a new Uptrend, than jump into an uncertain market.

The ACCUMULATION/DISTRIBUTION TABLE8

The As and Bs have been stagnant over the last 3 weeks. It sounds like the market makers are uncertain what to do with this market.  

That means I will wait cautiously and watch what they do. Perhaps the talks by the 4Federal Reserve executives’ talks will encourage new buyers.

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