2024-04-25 Armchair Investor Newsletter. The Market Pauses causing a “GHOST” (white) MARKET ACTION

2024-04-25 Armchair Investor Newsletter. The Market Pauses causinga “GHOST” (white) MARKET ACTION

This week started with a nice 3 day pop higher, but lost a smallpart of that on Thursday.  Let’s see howthe Nasdaq ends this week.

CONCLUSION: For this week so far, the market is NOT yet showing enough upward strength to get me excited.

Remember---  In a falling market,you should look for the INVERSE ETFs to rise.  This week the volume of the trading days is low on Friday, too, I will question the viability of this week’smarket rise.

If the market takes a significant reversal back down, I will sell my triple ETF. At first look, you might think that is what happened today,

If the market falls more on Friday, I may buy the inverse QQQs. As the market is falling, I would make some money.

Look at the current table of the THREE MAJOR MARKETS below. The Nasdaq and the S&P500 are holding near their recent rises. (As usual, the DJIA is just limped along.)

Look below at how well the three QQQ ETFs are staying in order! The day’s rises were very close to 1, 2, 3 proportions.

The 3 versions of the QQQ are behaving very well, with gains today  of 0.3%, 0.7% and 1.0% (Wednesday - but there was not much of a change between the 2 days) of 0.3%, 0.7% and 1.0%.

Note the TQQQ chart looks a lot like the Nasdaq.

If you have gone short…. (in the SQQQ perhaps), you will see your portfolio rise as the indexes fall. (Good job!)  But now it looks like the market has fallen as much as it is going to at the moment.

Do the 2 rising days in a row, confirm a new Uptrend?  Two days in one direction is NOT enough for me to declare a new Uptrend.  

BUT I am optimistic! …. stay tuned!

PAPER TRADING:  If you aren’t comfortable getting in the inverse QQQ (or triple inverse QQQ called the SQQQ), consider holding a small position ON PAPER  (which means you don’t buy any of the stock, but you track it on paper as if you had… to see how great the market treats you!)

For your information: The TRIPLE SHORT QQQ  is the SQQQ.

If you missed my note and chart about the SQQQ, just think “inverse.”  

·      When the QQQ falls,

·      The short QQQ (the SQQQ) rises.

·      The Triple QQQ (TQQQ) rises about 3 times as much. Wow!

It may seem strange, but the charts will look very similar….Until you do the math and see the 3x factor in the pricing.

What can we do when the TQQQ is falling? e chart below) Just sell the TQQQ (or any other QQQyou own), and buy the inverse – the SQQQ.

BOTTOM LINE: A triple of any stock that is winning is better than just holding the single stock.

I LOVE THE WAY MY 20-DAY TABLES (below) make the market reversal soooo clear. I wantto see at least one or two more strong, rising days to declare the market is back in UPTREND!

‍The 20-day HISTORY of the NASDAQ PRICE & VOLUME

NOTE: *  The GREEN date box in the date column above means the Nasdaq hit an all-time high closing price! Wow!

The most recent three rising days (Monday, Tuesdayand Wednesday) set the market up for a new Uptrend.  I maybe jumping in a little early to declare a new Uptrend has begun. But my intuition tells me the market has shifted.  Wednesday was FLAT adding uncertainty to the market’s next move.

>>> MY CURRENT ACTION PLAN:  

BE LONG IN THE Nasdaq  by holding the QQQ.

And be LONG in the S&P500 (if you play theS&P500 – I do not.)

I have not earned as much playing the S&P500 so I staywith 100% of my investments in the QQQ or TQQQ.

The Accumulation/Distribution table for the current marketis shown below.

Pink boxes above indicate ratings that have fallen over the prior week.

Green boxes above indicate ratings that have risen over the prior  week.

‍Overall, the SUM of As + Bs is a STRONG  56% (bottom right-most percent) only 3% below the highest rating in the last 5 weeks.

(The above comment is my way of explaining to YOU that the market is looking UP! And you should consider somewhat higher moves. )  Look at the sum of the As and Bs that shifted from 44% As + Bs to today’s 56% As and Bs.  

The only way we will know which way the market is moving is to watch the market….. each day.) On Tuesday, the percent of As and Bs rose a slight 2%. On Wednesday, the percent of As and Bs rose 2% more.  

The ACCUMULATION/DISTRIBUTION table will be updated Friday.

Please consider reviewing this newsletter daily:  The markets can change direction and strength quickly! Notethat the percentage of As and Bs is holding between 58 and 62 for the last 5 weeks!

NOTE THIS WARNING.  Holding onto a falling stock, (whether an ETFor the stock of a favorite company), is a quick way to lose your recent gains. If you play individual stocks and ETF’s, play carefully. Use the real returns (daily, weekly, monthly)

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IT IS COMMON FOR STOCKS, ETFs, AND FUNDS TO FALL FASTER THAN THE RISE.

Of course, I do not sell a positionthat has been rising well after one or two small down days. But if you had asignificant loss over several days, especially if there is an increase inmarket distribution days (down days on higher volume), then stepping outand waiting in cash can help you save your portfolio for future rallies and letyou sleep at night.

>>>> Stay tuned for Friday’s results!

One additional “Word to the Wise”…

>>>MOST MARKETS FALL FASTER THAN THEY RISE. Beware of buying any new positions unless they are very healthy.

Wishing you best returns in your portfolio!.

Charlotte Hudgin,

The ArmchairInvestor newsletter

>>>>> I APPRECIATE YOURCONTRIBUTIONS FOR SUPPORTING THIS NEWSLETTER.  I USUALLY SPEND  MORETHAN 4 HOURS FOR EACH ARMCHAIR INVESTOR NEWSLETTER:

·      RESEARCHINGTHE IDEAS IN THIS NEWSLETTER,

·      CALCULATINGALL THE DATA I NEED,

·      WRITINGTHE TEXT FOR THE NEWSLETTER AND….

·      FORMATTINGTHE NEWSLETTER.  (Today it was more like 5 hours.)

I WELCOME YOUR COMMENTS ON THE MINORCHANGES IN TODAY’S NEWSLETTER (as described in the notes.) 

Thank you for your kind feedback and ESPECIALLYFOR YOU WHO HAVE DECIDED TO MAKE A MONTHY CONTRIBUTION.

Charlotte Hudgin, The ArmchairInvestor  

For active subscribers, my phonenumber is  (214)995-6702

May your stock portfolio grow and growand grow as this giraffe family has!

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