FRIDAY 1/5/2024: Market closes the week with slight rise in price with volume returning to prior averages. Let’s see if the trading picks up on Monday.

ARMCHAIR INVESTOR NEWSLETTER

FRIDAY 1/5/2024:  Market closes the week with slight rise in price with volume returning to prior averages. Let’s see if the trading picks up on Monday.

The light volume for the 6 days before the Christmas holiday happened as expected. The slightly below average volume on the week between Christmas and New Year’s day is also, “as expected.”  And it may take a few days next week to get the volume rolling again.

Remember: Traders work hard during the year and deserve some time off around the year-end holidays. Note lighter volume at the end of the week in the table below. Even Monday may be a slower volume day.

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Friday’s volume and price movements were light. Now it is time to get back to work!

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Even Monday may be a slow volume day.

From Thursday’s newsletter: >>> If you take the time to look at the recent runup in the S&P500 and Nasdaq, you will see quite a wild rise over the last 2 months of2023. THEN …. You see the market fizzzzzzle over the last 5 days. The Nasdaq’s dropis slowed down over the last 2 trading days.

Iam anxious to see what the market does next week

NOTE:For the 2023 year, the Nasdaq took the lead rising 43.4% versus less than half of that rise (21.8%) for the S&P500. I expect the Nasdaq to lead the rises and the falls next year.

Do you see why I put my investing money in a Nasdaq ETF and NOT an S&P500 ETF?

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REPEAT OF MY EXPECTATIONS FOR 2024.

In 2024, I plan to include the S&P500 for comparison to the Nasdaq. But overall, the S&P500 just hasn’t kept up with the Nasdaq so why should I waste your time looking at the S&P500? So you will appreciate the Nasdaq’s greater growth!

Last year the Nasdaq more than doubled the S&P500’s returns. (see table above,)

So I will keep the S&P500 with the Nasdaq on my charts for comparison purposes.There is no other Mainstream ETF to compare it with.  BUT please do not think that because I listed the S&P500 that I consider it something to invest in.  NOTHING COULD BE FARTHER FROM MY THOUGHTS AND PAST EXPERIENCE.  

I include the S&P500 because it is the most commonly shown index to be paired with the Nasdaq.

WHY? I include the Nasdaq because it usually gives you a stronger performance than the S&P500 even though many sites only list the S&P500 in their headlines.Why do they do that?

BECAUSE THE S&P500MAKES POORER PERFORMING INVESTING SITES LOOK BETTER IN COMPARISON.

>>> CONCLUSION: I suggest you don’t waste your time on the DJIA or even the S&P500 unless it is in the occasional period of  outperforming the Nasdaq (which I will point out.)  And there is no guarantee how long those periods will last.

LOOK AT THESE HUGE 2023 QQQ RETURNS below! Which one would you prefer to have earned?

Where can you look for easy access to higher returns?

How about the triple QQQ an Exchange Traded Fund known by its TQQQ ticker?  

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>>> WARNING #1:  RISING MARKETS are always followed by …

FALLING MARKETS. It is your job to watch the markets (or just read this newsletter nightly) to be clear on what direction the market is going.

I willclearly let you know when I make the market direction switches from TQQQ to inverse SQQQ in this newsletter.

REMEMBER:  I do NOT know how to:

·      Get in at the bottom or

·      Get out at the top.

·       ….. but I have consistently gotten closer than most …. And that timing has returned significant growth in my portfolio.

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>>>WARNING #1: RISING MARKETS are always followed by FALLING MARKETS. It is your job towatch the markets for changes in direction (or just read this newsletternightly.)

>>>>NOTE: In arising market, the Triple QQQ (TQQQ) is where I historically have made some of thebiggest returns. And I am very open to stashing my money with the TQQQ again,but NOT RIGHT NOW as the market is falling.

If you had gotten in and out with the Armchair Investor signals, you would have avoided many of the losses and participated in more of the gains in the rising markets.Even if you hesitated a few days, a slightly late entry could still have added nicely to your portfolio.

THE TIMING OF THE TQQQ (triple QQQ) is one strategy I will focus on this year.

Are you concerned that the market may have risen as much as it could, for the moment? … I’m not.  

I have repeated some of my strategies below.  Ifyou have read those enough times to repeat them by heart, you are excused!

HERE ARE THOSE THOUGHTS…..

I will simply follow what is actually going on in the current market and utilize “best practices” to gather ,u share of the wins, avoiding most of the losses. That means that I CHECK INTO THE MARKET a couple of times a day.

NOTE:  IF YOU EVER SEE AN EMAIL FROM ME IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY (which happens rarely), consider give it a quick read.

·       Remember: The market and individual stocks continue in the direction they are going… until they don’t.

Please do not expect the 2023 gains in the coming year. 2023 was an amazing year but the market may see itself as “extended.”

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Count on my telling you about the trend changes during the year so you can ride them appropriately

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And with the blow-out in some of the AI stocks, it will be worth your time to read at least the first page of this newsletter nightly to be sure you don’t miss my notes on when and where the big growth (or fall) is happening!  

I hope you have enjoyed an investment in the TQQQ (triple QQQ.)  They have grown almost 4 times the single QQQ this year. ….. But remember…. The TQQQ also can fall at 3 (or more) times the QQQ.  

What to do about the high volatility of the TQQQ?

>>> I suggest you read at least the first two pages of this newsletter each night.  This action will keep you tapped into the current market. And remember:

·      I do NOT know how to get in at the market bottoms and out at the tops. ----- I just get closer than most others.

Note on the table of the price/volume action of the last 20 days,  only 3 days were Distribution days – when the price dropped and the volume rose, indicated some serious selling.

Now look down the Nasdaq 20-day table below.

What do you see happening in the recent market?

 And with the blow-out in some of the AI stocks, it will be worth your time to read at least the first page of this newsletter nightly to be sure you don’t miss my notes on when and where the big growth (or fall) is happening!  

I hope you have enjoyed an investment in the TQQQ (triple QQQ.)  They have grown almost 4 times the single QQQ this year. ….. But remember…. The TQQQ also can fall at 3 (or more) times the QQQ.  

What to do about the high volatility of the TQQQ?

>>> I suggest you read at least the first two pages of this newsletter each night.  This action will keep you tapped into the current market. And remember:

·      I do NOT know how to get in at the market bottoms and out at the tops. ----- I just get closer than most others.

Note on the table of the price/volume action of the last 20 days,  only 3 days were Distribution days – when the price dropped and the volume rose, indicated some serious selling.

Now look down the Nasdaq 20-daytable below.

What do you see happening in the recent market?

 “What goes UP, UP, UP….. eventually goes DOWN!  And “WOW!” did the Nasdaq drop hard when it finally gave in to the Downtrend.

Look at the amazing percentage of stocks that have “A” or “B” ratings – Even after a drop from recent A+B s owning 732%....today’s 68% As+Bs is still very strong.!!!

Please watch this newsletter daily. Note that the percentage of A rated stocks dropped today.

The percent of “A” and “B” rated stocks is an EXCITING 68%.  You can find winners easily!

NOTE THIS WARNING.  Holding onto a falling stock, whether an ETF or the stock of a favorite company, is a quick way to loose your recent gains. If you play individual stocks and ETF’s, play carefully. Use the real returns (daily, weekly, monthly)

>>>> Remember….. down is down!

Of course I do not sell a position that has been rising well after one or two small down days. But if you had a significant loss over several days, especially if there is an increase in market distribution days (down days on higher volume), then stepping out and waiting in cash can help you save your portfolio for future rallies and let you sleep at night.

REMEMBER:_____EVEN IF CASH IS A VALID POSITION,…in a fast rising market, you should consider holding a position that allows you to position your portfolio to rise with the market (or a multiple of it.) Stay tuned! And watch daily!

And….. those birds still aren’t going anywhere!

Stay tuned!    Those birds just aren’t going anywhere!

One additional “Word to the Wise”…

>>>>>--- MOST MARKETS FALL FASTER THAN THEY RISE. Beware of buying any new positions unless they are very healthy.

Wishing you big returns in your portfolio!.

I APPRECIATE YOUR CONTRIBUTIONS FOR SUPPORTING THIS NEWSLETTER.  I USUALLY SPEND  MORE THAN 4 HOURS RESEARCHING THE IDEAS IN THIS NEWSLETTER, CALCULATING ALL THE DATA I NEED, WRITING THE TEXT FOR THE NEWSLETTER AND…. FORMATING THE NEWSLETTER. (Today it was more like 8 hours.)

I WELCOME YOUR COMMENTS ON THE MINOR CHANGES IN TODAY’S NEWSLETTER (as described in the notes.)

Thank you for your kind feedback and ideas. Please keep sending them.

Charlotte Hudgin

The Armchair Investor

CharlotteDH100@mail.com