2024-03-04M: The Armchair Investor Newsletter. Market has Mild -0.4% Sell-off My Tuesday Action Plan: Hold the TQQQ.

I amvery pleased with the dependable 1-2-3 relationship the 3 ETFs – the singleQQQ, the double QLD and the triple and am especially enjoying making those greatreturns on the triple QQQs!...

TheTQQQ has earned 19.2% (minor a small drop on Monday) in the recent 4 months! Yes,19.2% is not quite 3 times the 7.2% on the QQQ’s gain Thursday. But it isclose.  

NOTE:The longer the year runs, the more the double QQQ (QLD) and the triple QQQ(TQQQ) will very from the 2x and 3x numbers. But if you step back, you will probably see the double and triplecontinue to show moves close the 2x and 3x.

2024-03-04M: The Armchair Investor Newsletter. Market has Mild -0.4% Sell-off  

My Tuesday Action Plan: Hold the TQQQ.

Note that the stock market has risen for 16 of the last 18 weeks!  That is a happy rising market!

The Nasdaq held just below its all-time (Friday) high! That is something to dance about -  a 42% rise over the last 9 weeks to close at $16,207.51 exceeding the 16,000 level it has stayed with over thelast almost 3 weeks.

Note on the chart below how nicely the Nasdaq climbed 42.0% higher over the last year sinceits November 2023 low. I do NOT recommend “buy & hold” but in a market that has long period of running in one direction and then the other, you could have been in cash during part of the 3 month dip and increased your total gains during the last year.

I have included an Investor’s Business Daily chart to get an enlarged,  detailed view of the last 7+ months price/volume action. Note the Nasdaq’s 4 month runup since the October 2023 dip.

Be careful judging how easy it would have been to capture much of the Nasdaq’s rise over the last year.  Dips like those in January and then February of this year could have scared many traders to the sidelines.

Let’s look more closely at the triple QQQs (all 3 forms of them shown below.) Note the2024 gains are still staying in an orderly 1 – 2 – 3 relationship year-to-date.(Note continues below the QQQ table.)

As long as the Exchange Traded Funds are running up and then down for fewer weeks,you can make money- in the runs.

Note how well the fund managers are keeping their 3 Q-funds in well controlled 1-2-3relations  (0.4%, -0.8%, and -1.2%!)  Even though the market slipped a little lower Monday, most of the year+ gains are holding.

I am very pleased with the dependable 1-2-3 relationship the 3 ETFs – the single Q QQ, the double QLD and the triple and am especially enjoying making those great returns on the triple QQQs!...

TheTQQQ has earned 23.0% in the recent 2+ months!

NOTE:The longer the year runs, the more the double QQQ (QLD) and the triple QQQ(TQQQ) will very from the 2x and 3x numbers. But if you step back, you will probably see the double and triple continue to show moves close the 2x and 3x.

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Remember:  The key lesson among these tables and charts is to:

·   Step back to see the what the charts are telling you.

·   Know how much of a dip you are willing ride.

·   And appreciate that caution can help you retain rises that those over last year.

Since the COVID dip near the start of 2020, the market has been a wild and quite profitable ride!  But if you stepped back and looked at the trends, you could have caught much of the uptrends. You might have been aggressive enough to short the 2022 market!

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Mypromise to you:  I will identify:

·       When the market is rising and you should be in it.

·       And when the market is falling and you should be out.  

Also, please remember: ….. I do NOT know how to:

·       Get in at the bottoms or out at the tops.

·       (We can only see the tops and bottoms after they have happened!)

·       But I do not know how to get in and out at the points of inflection. But I get closer than most.

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The BIG QUESTION IS..... "How long with the current uptrend run?" And will the new trading technologies change it all?

Note on the chart below how nicely the Nasdaq climbed 42.0% higher overthe last year since its November 2023 low. I do NOT recommend “buy & hold” but in a market that has long period of running in one direction and then theother, you could have been in cash during part of the 3 month dip and increased your total gains during the last year.

I have included an Investor’s Business Daily chart to get an enlarged, detailed view of the last 7+ months price/volume action. Note the Nasdaq’s 4 month runup since the October 2023 dip.

Be careful judging how easy it would have been to capture much of theNasdaq’s rise over the last year.  Dips like those in January and then February of this year could have scared many traders to the sidelines.

Let’s look more closely at the triple QQQs (all 3 forms of them shown below.) Note the 2024 gains are still staying in an orderly 1 – 2 – 3 relationship year-to-date.(Note continues below the QQQ table.)

As long as the Exchange Traded Funds are running up and then down for fewer weeks, you can make money- in the price runs.

Note how well the fund managers are keeping their 3 Q-funds in well controlled 1-2-3relations  (0.4%, -0.8%, and -1.2%!)  Even though the market slipped a little lower Monday, most of the year+ gains are holding.

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If you can’t sleep tonight because you know the TQQQ can drop 3 times as fast as theQQQ, I encourage you to take one of these moves:

 ·      First, look at a weekly chart(which takes out much of the annoying volatility),  

·       Second, realizethat the TQQQ is climbing toward its recent high and is mostly rising (everyinvestment has ups and downs.

·       Third, stepback and see how they are adding up…. Are the investments rising or fallingoverall?

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·      If you can’t sleep well at night knowing the TQQQ can fall 3 times as fast as the single QQQ, consider holding your investment in the QQQand “paper trade” the TQQQ. 

·      And stay tuned…. Note what happens next so you will see if the exit was the best idea….. The good news about the TQQQ is that they have paid me well in every runup I have used them.

MY PLAN: >>> If the market is moving higher consistently,  I simply put my money in the TRIPLE QQQ until the market starts to generate a smaller return or reverses down. 

NOTE: For the last 23 years I’ve been following the QQQs, and then, when they came along, the TQQQ (triple QQQ) and the SQQQs (the short triple QQQ), my portfoliohas enjoyed an accelerated growth.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

MY PLAN:  It’s just 3 simple steps:

1.    Be in the TQQQ (triple long QQQ) when the market is rising.

2.    Be in the SQQQ (triple short QQQ) when the market isfalling hard.

o   TheSQQQ rise if you hold it because the SQQQ is an INVERSE ETF. It rises when themarket it represents falls.

3.    And sometimes wait in CASH if the market is changingdirection or is just “flakey.”  I’lldiscuss any of those times in this newsletter!

Isn’t it nice to have an investment that is likely to earn a positive return when themarket is falling? (That is what an “inverse” ETF does like the SQQQ.)

>>>And if you ever get spooked, *CASH* is always a safe position.You may not make as much as being in a rising triple ETF but you will sleepbetter at night if you don’t extend past your comfort level. And a littlepractice will sure show you what you did right and what you did wrong, If youare willing to examine the big wins and losses.

Could it be any easier?  I have played thetriple Note QQQ and inverse QQQ for years; ….even  before I had made much money in them.  They made sense then and they make more sensenow.

So I continue my investing plan:

·       Hang on to the TQQQ when the market is rising.

·       Move to CASH when the market is unclear.

·       Change to SQQQ (the short Qs) when the market is falling.

>>>>>FINALLY: REMEMBER:

In the stock market,…

“What goes UP, UP, UP….. eventually goes DOWN, DOWN, DOWN! “

Look belowat the amazing percentage of stocks that have “A” or “B” ratings – Even after adrop from recent A+B s owning 68%.... today’s 55% As+Bs is still pleasantlystrong.!!!

Monday’s  Accumulation/Distribution table:                          

Pink boxes above indicate ratings that have fallen over the last week.

Green boxes above indicate ratings that have risen over thelast week.

Please consider reviewing this newsletter daily: .Themarkets can change direction and strength quickly! Note that the percentage ofAs and Bs took hit over the last 4 weeks – a drop from 61% fourweeks ago to 52% 2 WEEKS AGO TO 58% LAST WEEK on this week!>>>>>  A small drop !

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NOTE THIS WARNING.  Holding ontoa falling stock, (whether an ETF or the stock of a favorite company), is aquick way to lose your recent gains. If you play individual stocks and ETF’s,play carefully. Use the real returns (daily, weekly, monthly)

IT IS COMMON FOR STOCKS, ETFs, AND FUNDS TO FALL FASTERTHAN THE RISE.

Of course, I do not sell a position that has been risingwell after one or two small down days. But if you had a significant loss overseveral days, especially if there is an increase in market distribution days(down days on higher volume), then stepping out and waiting in cash canhelp you save your portfolio for future rallies and let you sleep at night.

REMEMBER:_____EVEN IF CASH IS A VALID POSITION,…in a fastrising market, you should VISIT your portfolio to verify it (or a big part ofit) is not dropping.

>>>> Stay tuned for Friday’s results!

One additional “Word to the Wise”…

>>>>>--- MOST MARKETS FALL FASTERTHAN THEY RISE. Beware of buying any new positions unless they are veryhealthy.

Wishing you big returns in your portfolio!.

I APPRECIATE YOUR CONTRIBUTIONS FOR SUPPORTING THISNEWSLETTER.  

I USUALLY SPEND  MORE THAN 4 HOURS FOR EACH ARMCHAIRINVESTOR NEWSLETTER:

·      RESEARCHING THE IDEASIN THIS NEWSLETTER,

·      CALCULATING ALL THEDATA I NEED,

·      WRITING THE TEXT FORTHE NEWSLETTER AND….

·      FORMATTING THENEWSLETTER.  (Today it was more like 5 hours.)

I WELCOME YOUR COMMENTS ON THE MINOR CHANGES IN TODAY’SNEWSLETTER (as described in the notes.) 

Thank you for your kind feedback  and ESPECIALLY FOR YOU WHO HAVE DECIDED TOMAKE A MONTHY CONTRIBUTION.

Charlotte Hudgin, The Armchair Investor

May your stock portfolio grow and grow and grow!  Like the herd of Giraffs below!

CharlotteDH100@mail.com

(214) 995-6702

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