Armchair Investor Newsletter. 2024-03-26T: Nasdaq and S&P500 have Minor Distribution Days, Getting Quiet for this Good Friday Week

Armchair Investor Newsletter. 2024-03-26T: Nasdaq and S&P500 have Minor Distribution Days,Getting Quiet for this Good Friday Week

I expect lighter volume during this 4-day week, unless theFed does something to surprise the traders. But I think they want a gentle week, also.  The DJIA may have already signed out – theDJIA fell 0.08% Tuesday,

REMINDER: The stock market will be CLOSED on FRIDAY.

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As themarket gets ready for the Good Friday holiday, I would not be surprised if weget a quiet week.    

NOTE:The Nasdaq hit a new all-time high (by a hair) last Friday and slipped down lessthan 1% over the last 2 trading days. !

Let’slook at the recent run-up!  I don’t knowabout you, but I am OK with the Nasdaq holding near Friday’s all-time highduring this holiday-shortened week! As of Tuesday’s close, the Nasdaq is down0.7% this week.

As the market gets ready for the Good Friday holiday, I would not be surprised if we get a quiet week.    

NOTE: The Nasdaq hit a new all-time high (by a hair) last Friday and slipped down lessthan 1% over the last 2 trading days. !

Let’s look at the recent run-up!  I don’t know about you, but I am OK with the Nasdaq holding near Friday’s all-time high during this holiday-shortened week! As of Tuesday’s close, the Nasdaq is down 0.7% this week.

‍Recap: The Nasdaq ended last week up almost 3%. Volume was lighter, perhaps in preparation for the short week of the Easter holiday.

This week’s first two days were down days …… for a total drop of 0.7%.  I’m OK with that!

‍This table tracks the returns earned in the single QQQ,  the double QLD and the triple TQQQ as of THE MOST CURRENT TRADING DAY  (TODAY).  I see NO need for the double QQQ, but you might be curious. So I include it today, but probably NOT in the  future.

REMEMBER:  I do not know how to get in at the bottoms or out at the tops…. I just get closer than most!

If you step back and look at the above MAJOR EXCHANGE TRADED FUND TABLE, you may not be too concerned.  The TQQQ will continue to be volatile…..that’s what a triple ETF does. If you watch the market's moves and chose to be IN the QQQ or TQQQ (depending on your confidence in the market,) you should show a surprising strong return.

·       NOTHING BEATS HOLDING THE TQQQ in an Uptrend.

·       NOTHING BEATS HOLDING THE SQQQ in a Downtrend.

>>>I focus on the TQQQ because you can typically make 2 ½ to 3 times what the QQQ earns.

NOTE:  I am very pleased with the dependable 1-2-3 relationship the 3 ETFs – the single QQQ, the double QLD and the triple TQQQ… and I am especially enjoying making those great returns on the triple QQQs (TQQQ)!... 

Extended notes with resume next week.I expect the market to get moving as traders return to their desks after the Easter holiday.

NOTE:*  A GREEN date box in the date column in this table means the Nasdaq hit anall-time high closing price! Wow!

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MY CURRENT ACTION PLAN:  (Please refer tothe ACTION PLAN FROM Marach 19 newsletter)

Today’s Accumulation/Distribution table: The stronger (green) A & B boxes rose 6% today.  Overall, the As + Bs are again near 60%, a frequent topping rating.  

‍Pink boxes above indicate ratings that have fallen over the last week. Green boxes above indicate ratings that have risen over the last week.

Please consider reviewing this newsletter daily: .The markets can change direction and strength quickly! Note that the percentage of As and Bs took hit over the last 4 weeks – a drop from 61% fourweeks ago to 52% 2 WEEKS AGO TO 58% LAST WEEK on this week!>>>>>  A small drop !

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NOTE THIS WARNING.  Holding ontoa falling stock, (whether an ETF or the stock of a favorite company), is aquick way to lose your recent gains. If you play individual stocks and ETF’s,play carefully. Use the real returns (daily, weekly, monthly)

IT IS COMMON FOR STOCKS, ETFs, AND FUNDS TO FALL FASTER THAN THE RISE.

Of course, I do not sell a position that has been risingwell after one or two small down days. But if you had a significant loss overseveral days, especially if there is an increase in market distribution days(down days on higher volume), then stepping out and waiting in cash canhelp you save your portfolio for future rallies and let you sleep at night.

REMEMBER:_____EVEN IF CASH IS A VALID POSITION,…in a fast rising market, you should VISIT your portfolio to verify it (or a big part ofit) is not dropping.

>>>> Stay tuned for Friday’s results!

One additional “Word to the Wise”…

>>>>>--- MOST MARKETS FALL FASTER THAN THEY RISE. Beware of buying any new positions unless they are veryhealthy.

Wishing you big returns in your portfolio!.

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I APPRECIATE YOUR CONTRIBUTIONS FOR SUPPORTING THIS NEWSLETTER.  

I USUALLY SPEND  MORE THAN 4 HOURS FOR EACH ARMCHAIR INVESTOR NEWSLETTER:

·      RESEARCHING THE IDEAS IN THIS NEWSLETTER,

·      CALCULATING ALL THE DATA I NEED,

·      WRITING THE TEXT FOR THE NEWSLETTER AND….

·      FORMATTING THE NEWSLETTER.  (Today it was more like 5 hours.)

I WELCOME YOUR COMMENTS ON THE MINOR CHANGES IN TODAY’S NEWSLETTER (as described in the notes.) 

Thank you for your kind feedback  and ESPECIALLY FOR YOU WHO HAVE DECIDED TOMAKE A MONTHY CONTRIBUTION.

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Charlotte Hudgin, The Armchair Investor

May your stock portfolio grow and grow and grow like this giraffe family!