2024-02-26M: The Armchair Investor Newsletter for Monday Nasdaq FLAT, S&P500 -0.4%.

2024-02-26M: The Armchair Investor Newsletter for Monday Nasdaq FLAT, S&P500 -0.4%.

My Action Plan for Monday: Hold the TQQQ and check inperiodically during the day.

Monday was a quiet day in the stock market.  Note the three major indexes did not move significantly.

Let’s look more closely at the triple QQQs (all 3 forms ofthem shown below.) When the market barely moves, you might think there issomething wrong.  It is more likely that the market just hit a quiet day as shown below. Note the 2024 gains/losses are still staying in an orderly relationship year-to-date.

Even though Monday’s QQQs barely moved, the three QQQ ETFs have kept the usual 1-2-3 relationship. I can make great returns on those triples!

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But remember!:  The above“multiples” also fall at 1x, 2x and 3X times as fast when the QQQ drops.  And. "yes!" those triples have nicely set up my retirement. Look at a TQQQ chart around 10/26/23 lastyear. Wow! I hope YOU took part in that rise!

(The above chart includes hour of Tuesday morning’s action.)

MY PROMISE TO YOU:

I will identify:

·       When the market is rising and you should be in it.

·       And when the market is falling and you should be out.

Also, please remember: ….. I do NOT know how to:

·       Get in at the bottoms or out at the tops.

·       We can only see the tops and bottoms after they havehappened!

I do have a great track record of getting in and out near the points of inflection.

And always consider…. If you start to get frazzled with the market,… CASH can be a great place to be when an investment shows what I call,“hesitation to rise on higher volume.”

Yes! And, the TQQQ should always get your ATTENTION FIRST even though the QQQ and TQQQ charts can look similar. If you are uncertain because the charts look so similar, do the math –figure out how much more the Triple QQQ (TQQQ) if rising (or falling) to decide what to do EACH DAY!

AND TO REMINDYOU……

I USE THE TRIPLE QQQs WHEN THE MARKET ISRISING.  THREE TIMES THE GAINS IS ALWAYSBETTER THAN ONE.

>>>>> Note: It is always possible for my timing to be wrong!

The market can reverse and start dropping the day after I identify a buy signal. It is rare, but it can happen.  If it does, what should you do?  

‍Without waiting for me to tell you, you could go to CASH! Which is always a safe place.

(And why not just save yourself some time and NOT consider using the TYPICALLY SLOWER MOVING S&P500.)

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REMEMBER:  Every rising market has some down periods.  You have to decide how much of a sell-off you can stand.  I hope you will find the ideas in this newsletter helpful in making your directional decisions.

You can SELL if you are uncomfortable with THE INTRADAY ACTION of any stock you own. But I hang on the Tripple QQQ until I see it show some great weakness. Every road forward has some bumps. I will watch what happens daily. If the market drops during the day,you may get a mid-day message posted on the newsletter site (when I get themessage application working again.)

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Yes, the QQQ did drop on 5 of the last 6 trading days. But note that Thursday with its +3.0% day left the Nasdaq is positive territory compared to the  

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If you can’t sleep tonight because you know the TQQQ can drop 3 times as fast s the QQQ, I encourage you to take one of these moves:

·      First, look at a weekly chart (which takes out much of the annoying price volatility),  

·      Second, realize that the TQQQ is climbing toward its recent high and is mostly rising. (Every investment has ups and downs.)

·      Third, step back and see how your investments are adding up…. Are the investments rising or falling overall?

·      If you can’t sleep well at night knowing the TQQQ can fall 3 times as fast as the single QQQ, consider holding your investment in the QQQ and “paper trqade” the TQQQ. (note the price and date today, then list the gains and losses each day.

·      And stay tuned…. Note what happens next so you will see if the exit was the best idea….. The good news about theTQQQ is that they have paid me well in every runup I have used them.

MY PLAN: >>> If the market is moving higher consistently,  I simply put my money in the TRIPLE QQQ until the market starts to generate a smaller return or reverses down.

NOTE for the last 23 years I’ve been following the QQQs, and then, when they came along, the TQQQ (triple QQQ) and the SQQQs (the short triple QQQ which rises when the market falls), my portfolio has enjoyed an accelerated growth.

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MY PLAN:  It’s just 3 simple steps:

1.    Be in the TQQQ(triple long QQQ) when the market is rising.

2.    Be in the SQQQ (triple shortQQQ) when the market is falling hard.

.......The SQQQ rises if you hold it when the TQQQ is falling because the SQQQ is an INVERSE ETF. It rises when the market it represents falls.

3.    And sometimes wait in CASH if the market is changing direction or is just “flakey.”  I’ll discuss any of those times in this newsletter!

Isn’t it nice to have an investment that is likely to earn an attractive positive return when the market is falling? (That is what an “inverse” ETF does like the SQQQ.)

>>> And if you ever gets pooked, remember: *CASH* is always a safe position. You won't make as much as being in a rising triple ETF but you will sleep better at night if you don’t extend past your comfort level. And a little practice will sure show you what you did right and what you did wrong,If you are willing to examine the big wins and losses.  

Could it be any easier?  I have played the triple QQQ and inverse QQQ for years; ….even "paper traded" before I had was confident in them.  They made sense then and they make more sense now.

So I continue my investing plan:

·      Hangon to the TQQQ when the market is rising.

·      Moveto CASH when the market is unclear.

·      Change to SQQQ (the short Qs) when the market is falling.

I MUST complement the QQQ and SQQQ ETFmanagers!  They usually deliver on their plan to ride the TQQQ up about 2.5X to 3X times the QQQ in a rising market.

>>> I happily put my investment in the TQQQ as long as the market is rising, being very pleased with whatever slight variation of 3x that they earn.

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>>>>>>>> MY PLAN FOR TUESDAY:   Be in the TQQQ.  <<<<<<<<<<<<

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REMEMBER: I DO NOT KNOW HOW TO PICK THE TOP OR THE BOTTOM OF A RUN until I see them in the rearviewmirror.

But I usually get closer to the tops and bottoms than most traders.

>>> NOTE: The nice thing about the TQQQ is -- it can make a lot of money for you when it is rising.  

THE BAD NEWS ABOUT THE TRIPLE QQQs –BOTH the TQQQ and the SQQQ: You can QUICKLY LOOSE THOSE GAINS IN A QUICK MARKET TURNAROUND IF YOU ARE NOT PAYING ATTENTION.  Please visitthis newsletter every day – even if only to read the first page.

IF YOU ARE GOING TO PLAY IN THE TRIPLE ETF UNIVERSE, YOU HAVE TO WATCH IT EVERY DAY ….. OR BE WILLING TO BE UNPLEASANTLY SURPRISED (DISAPPOINTED) WITH A QUICK SWITCH IN THE MARKET DIRECTION.

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>>>> Really….How long does it take to look at the current QQQ price chart? Just a wink if you have it set up on your phone or computer.

I AM AMAZED AT HOW FEW DOWN DAYS  the Nasdaq has in the last 20 trading days!

What I like best about the current MARKET FACTORS, COUNTS & RATINGS table below is the number of Accumulation days (5) still (slightly) out runs the 4 distribution days in the last 20 trading days.

That ratio gives me a good sense of the strength and directio‍n of the current market. If the recent move of 6UP days and 3 DOWN days confuses you, note that I do not count a day’s move unless it was at least 0.2% up or down (which these did.)

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What should you do when the market starts falling (and it always does…. eventually.)?

Just read this newsletter that night and I will give you a simple solution based on what the market is doing then.

If you can’t stand the market dropping, it is OK to sell your holdings and wait in CASH.

>>>>>REMEMBER:  Ido NOT know how to:

·      Getin at the bottom or

·      Get out at the top.

·      But Ihave consistently gotten closer than most other advisors…. And that timing has returned significant growth in my portfolio and those report from elsewhere.

Are you concerned that the market may have risen as much as it can for the moment? You might be right … butI’m not yet seeing the market slowing down.

>>> The current Uptrend is tostill showing moderate strength.  

NOTE:  IF YOU EVER SEE AN EMAIL FROM ME IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY (which happens rarely), consider giving it a quick read. It MIGHT include a change of strategy you can implement during the day to reduce your losses as the market falls or to save more ofyour prior wins.

·      Remember: The market and individual stocks continue in the direction they are going…until they don’t.

>>>> Please read this newsletter nightly to be sure you don’t miss my notes on when and where the big growth (or fall) is happening!  

What to do about the high volatilityof the TQQQ?

>>>I suggest you read atleast the first two pages of this newsletter each night.  This action willkeep you tapped into the current market.

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>>>>And remember:

·      I do NOT know how to get in at the market bottoms and out at the tops. ----- I just get closer than most others. Note on the above table the price/volume action

of the last 20 days. Only 3 days were Distribution days –when the price dropped and the volume rose, indicated some serious selling.

>>>>>FINALLY: REMEMBER:

In the stock market,…

“What goes UP, UP, UP….. eventually goes DOWN, DOWN, DOWN! “

Look below at the amazing percentage of stocks that have “A” or “B” ratings – Even after a drop from recent A+B s earned 68%.... today’s 55% As+Bs is still pleasantly strong.!!!

Tuesday’s  Accumulation/Distribution table:  

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Pink boxes above indicate ratings that have fallen over the last week.

Green boxes above indicate ratings that have risen over the last week.

Please consider reviewing this newsletter daily: .The markets can change direction and strength quickly! Note that the percentage of As and Bs took hit over thelast 4 weeks – a drop from 61% four weeks ago to 52% 2 WEEKS AGO TO 58% LAST WEEK on this week! >>>>>  A small drop !

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NOTE THIS WARNING.  Holding onto a falling stock, (whether an ETFor the stock of a favorite company), is a quick way to lose your recent gains.If you play individual stocks and ETF’s, play carefully. Use the real returns(daily, weekly, monthly)

IT IS COMMON FOR STOCKS, ETFs, ANDFUNDS TO FALL FASTER THAN THE RISE.

Of course, I do not sell a positionthat has been rising well after one or two small down days. But if you had asignificant loss over several days, especially if there is an increase inmarket distribution days (down days on higher volume), then stepping outand waiting in cash can help you save your portfolio for future rallies and letyou sleep at night.

REMEMBER:_____EVEN IF CASH IS A VALID POSITION,…in a fast rising market, you should VISIT your portfolio to verify it (or a big part of it) is not dropping.

Stay tuned! And watch daily!

One additional “Word to the Wise”…

>>>>>--- MOST MARKETS FALL FASTER THAN THEY RISE. Beware of buying any new positions in a down market unless they are VERY healthy.

Wishing you big returns in your portfolio!.

I APPRECIATE YOUR CONTRIBUTIONS FOR SUPPORTING THIS NEWSLETTER.  

I USUALLY SPEND  MORE THAN 4HOURS FOR EACH ARMCHAIR INVESTOR NEWSLETTER:

·      RESEARCHINGTHE IDEAS IN THIS NEWSLETTER,

·      CALCULATINGALL THE DATA I NEED,

·      WRITINGTHE TEXT FOR THE NEWSLETTER AND….

·      FORMATTINGTHE NEWSLETTER.  (Today it was more like 5 hours.)

I WELCOME YOUR COMMENTS ON THE MINOR CHANGES IN TODAY’S NEWSLETTER (as described in the notes.) 

Thank you for your kind feedback  and ESPECIALLY FOR YOU WHO HAVE DECIDED TO MAKE A MONTHY CONTRIBUTION.

Charlotte Hudgin, The ArmchairInvestor

May your stock portfolio grow and growand grow!  

CharlotteDH100@mail.com

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