2024-03-15F: Armchair Investor Newsletter. TQQQ is 5.6% below its recent All-Time High

2024-03-15F: Armchair Investor Newsletter.  TQQQ is5.6% below its recent All-Time High

On Friday,the TQQQ fell 0.5% making the ETF just 5.6% off it recent all-time high!. The ETF is still up 98.4% from the October 26, 2023 start of its Uptrend.

(See chart below.) Wow! I am NOT complaining!

And I am not concerned about the minor drop after the TQQQ hit new high territory just a week ago.

If you are uncertain about the volatility of the triples (TQQQ, an investment which has been moving at about 3 times the plain QQQ), just take a moment and step back. Look at the big blue arrow on the chart below, showing the TQQQ’s extraordinary 96.8% gain in a less than 5 months. No complaints here!

Knowing I am still holding that 100% rise in the TQQQ over the last 5 months.  I am not crying!  Not even complaining – this volatility is what, eventually, pays off big-time if you can just see when to get in and out! And that is what we will continue to discuss in this newsletter.

REMEMBER:  I do not know how to get in at the lows orout at the highs. I just get closer than most!

I still see last Friday’s high volume distribution day as a warning. And I am paying attention to it, glad that Monday’s drop was just -0.4%. And very glad that Tuesday popped back up, closing at the top of its price range, even though the TQQQ dropped 3.2% Wednesday.

If you step back and look at the above TQQQ chart above, you may not be too concerned.  The TQQQ will continue to be volatile…..that’s what a triple ETF does.

>>>> LET’S LOOK AT FRIDAY’S indexes. Just a small correction across the board:

‍

What did the triple QQQs (all 3 forms of them show below) do on Friday?

IN MY WORLD –

·       NOTHING BEATS HOLDING THE TQQQ in an Uptrend, and

·       NOTHING BEATS HOLDING THE SQQQ in a Downtrend.

NOTE:  For the next 3 business days, I have some big commitments in service projects (I am a Rotarian, the largest volunteer service organization in the world!)

Thus, the newsletters may be shorter – especially if not much is shifting in the market.  

>>>I focus on the TQQQ because you can typically make 2 ½ to 3 times what the QQQ earns.

NOTE:  I am very pleased with the dependable 1-2-3relationship the 3 ETFs – the single QQQ, the double QLD and the triple TQQQ… and I am especially enjoying making those great returns on the triple QQQs!...

Note that the high within the last 20 days was hit on 3/7/2024. Look for the Green databox on the list of the last 20 days!

‍

NOTE: I will be out of town on Monday and Tuesday next week.  Please expect a shorten Armchair Investor newsletter – just the most important highlights.

‍

MY CURRENT PLAN:

If the market keeps moving higher consistently, I will simply put my money in the TRIPLE QQQ until the market starts to generate a smaller return or reverses down..

NOTE: for the last 23 years I’ve been following the QQQs, and then, when  the TQQQ (triple QQQ) and the SQQQs (the short triple QQQ) came along, my portfolio has enjoyed an accelerated growth.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

MY PLAN:  It’s just 3 simple steps:

1.    Be in the TQQQ (triple long QQQ) when the market is rising.

2.    Be in the SQQQ (triple short QQQ) when the market isfalling hard.

o   The SQQQ rise if you hold it because the SQQQ is an INVERSE ETF. It rises when the market it represents falls.

3.    And sometimes wait in CASH if the market is changing direction or is just “flakey.”  I’ll discuss any of those times in this newsletter!

Isn’t it nice to have an investment that is likely to earn a positive return when the market is falling? (That is what an “inverse” ETF does like the SQQQ.)

>>>And if you ever get spooked, *CASH* is always a safe position.You may not make as much as being in a rising triple ETF but you will sleep better at night if you don’t extend past your comfort level. And a little practice will sure show you what you did right and what you did wrong, If youare willing to examine the big wins and losses.

Could it be any easier?  I have played thetriple Note QQQ and inverse QQQ for years; ….even  before I had made much money in them.  They made sense then and they make more sense now.

So I continue my investing plan:

·       Hang on to the TQQQ when the market is rising.

·       Move to CASH when the market is unclear.

·       Change to SQQQ (the short Qs) when the market is falling.

I MUST complement the QQQ and SQQQ ETF managers! They deliver on their promise to ride the TQQQ up about 2.5X to 3X timesthe QQQ. In a

>>> I happily put my investment in the TQQQ as long as the market is rising, being very pleasedwith whatever slight variation of 3x that they earn.

>>>>>>PLAN FOR TOMORROW:   Be in the TQQQ. <<<<<<<<<

REMEMBER: I DO NOT KNOW HOW TO PICK THE TOP OR THE BOTTOM OF A RUN until I see them in the rearviewmirror.

But I usually get closer to the tops and bottoms than most traders.

>>>NOTE: The GOOD NEWS about the TQQQ is -- it can make a lot of money for youwhen it is rising.  

The BAD NEWS about the TRIPLE QQQs – BOTH the TQQQ and the SQQQ: You can QUICKLY LOOSE THOSE GAINS IN A QUICK MARKET TURNAROUND IF YOU ARENOT PAYING ATTENTION.  Please visitthis newsletter every day – even if only to read the first page.

IF YOU ARE GOING TO PLAY IN THE TRIPLE ETF UNIVERSE, YOU HAVE TO WATCH IT EVERY DAY….. OR BE WILLING TO BE UNPLEASANTLY SURPRISED (DISAPPOINTED) WITH A QUICKSWITCH IN THE MARKET DIRECTION.

>>>> Really…. How long does it take to look atthe current price chart? Just a wink if you have it set up on your phone orcomputer

I AM AMAZED AT HOW FEW DOWN DAYS  the Nasdaq has in the last 20 trading days!

What I like best about the current MARKET FACTORS, COUNTS & RATINGS tablebelow is the number of Accumulation days (5) still (slightly) out runs the4 distribution days in the last 20 trading days.

That ratio gives me a good sense of the strength and direction of the currentmarket. If the recent move of 6 UP days and 3 DOWN days confuses you, notethat I do not count a day’s move unless it was at least 0.2% up or down (whichthese did.)

===============

What should you do WHEN THE MARKET STARTS FALLING (and it always does…. eventually.)?

Just read this newsletter that night and I will give you a simple solution based on what the market is doing then.

If you can’t stand the market dropping, it is OK to sell your holdings abd wait in CASH.

>>>>>REMEMBER: I do NOT know how to:

·      Get in at the bottomor

·      Get out at the top.

·      ButI have consistently gotten closer than most other advisors…. And that timing has returned significant growth in my portfolio and those report from else where.Are you concerned that the market may have risen as much as it can for the moment? You might be right … but I’m not yet seeing the market slowing down.

>>>The current Uptrend is to still showing moderate strength.  

NOTE: IF YOU EVER SEE AN EMAIL FROM ME IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY (which happens rarely), consider giving it a quick read. It MIGHT include a change of strategy you can implement during the day to reduce your losses as the market falls or to save more of your prior wins.

·      Remember: The market and individual stocks continue in the direction they are going…until they don’t.

>>>>Please read this newsletter nightly to be sure you don’t miss my notes on when and where the big growth (or fall) is happening!  

What to do about the high volatility of the TQQQ?

>>>I suggest you read at least the first two pages of this newsletter each night. This action will keep you tapped into the current market. And remember:

·      I do NOT know how to get in at the market bottoms and out at the top. ----- I just get closer than most others. Note on the above table the price/volume action

of the last 20 days. Only 3 days were Distribution days – when the price dropped and the volume rose, indicated some serious selling.

>>>>>FINALLY: REMEMBER:

In the stock market,…

‍

“WHAT  goes UP, UP, UP….. eventually goes DOWN, DOWN,DOWN! “

Look below at the amazing percentage of stocks that have “A” or “B” ratings – Even after a drop from recent A+B s owning 68%.... today’s 55% As+Bs is still pleasantly strong.!!!

Friday’s Accumulation/Distribution table:

Pink boxes above indicate ratings that have fallen over the last week. Green boxes above indicate ratings that have risen over the last week.

Please consider reviewing this newsletter daily: . The markets can change direction and strength quickly! Note that the percentage of As and Bs took hit over the last 4 weeks, bobbinh up and down – a drop from 61% four weeks ago to 52% 2 WEEKS AGO TO 58% LAST WEEK on this week!>>>>>  A small, but pleasant rise !

‍

NOTE THIS WARNING.  Holding onto a falling stock, (whether an ETF or the stock of a favorite company), is a quick way to lose your recent gains. If you play individual stocks and ETF’s,play carefully. Use the real returns (daily, weekly, monthly.)

IT IS COMMON FOR STOCKS, ETFs, AND FUNDS TO FALL FASTER THAN THEY RISE.

Of course, I do not sell a position that has been rising well after one or two small down days. But if you had a significant loss over several days, especially if there is an increase in market distribution days (down days on higher volume), then stepping out and waiting in cash can help you save your portfolio for future rallies and let you sleep at night.

REMEMBER:_____EVEN IF CASH IS A VALID POSITION,…in a fast rising market, you should VISIT your portfolio to verify it is not dropping.

>>>> Stay tuned for Friday’s results!

One additional “Word to the Wise”…

>>>>>--- MOST MARKETS FALL FASTER THAN THEY RISE. Beware of buying any NEW POSITIONS unless they are very healthy.

Wishing you big returns in your portfolio!.

I APPRECIATE YOUR CONTRIBUTIONS FOR SUPPORTING THIS NEWSLETTER.  

I USUALLY SPEND  MORE THAN 4 HOURS FOR EACH ARMCHAIRINVESTOR NEWSLETTER:

·      RESEARCHING THE IDEAS IN THIS NEWSLETTER,

·      CALCULATING ALL THE DATA I NEED,

·      WRITING THE TEXT FOR THE NEWSLETTER AND….

·      FORMATTING THE NEWSLETTER.  (Today it was more like 5 hours.)

I WELCOME YOUR COMMENTS ON THE MINOR CHANGES IN TODAY’S NEWSLETTER (as described in the notes.) 

Thank you for your kind feedback  and ESPECIALLY FOR YOU WHO HAVE DECIDED TO MAKE A MONTHY CONTRIBUTION.

Charlotte Hudgin, The Armchair Investor

May your stock portfolio grow and grow and grow like this giraffe family!