2024-04-26F Armchair Investor Newsletter. Nasdaq and S&P500 rise on 4 of the last 5 days

2024-04-26F Armchair Investor Newsletter. Nasdaq and S&P500 rise on 4 of the last 5days

This week ended with 4 out or 5 tradingdays rising for a total increase in the Nasdaq of  4.2%.

CONCLUSION: The Nasdaq’s 4 rising days out of the 5 days ofthe week, was a pleasant turn around after the 6 down days in a row that preceded the rise.

·       Note:   Three of the rising days took significant jumps higher and 3 of the days closed very nearthe top of the days.

·       My only hesitation is the lower volume.  But I suspect that that volume may be in ahealth, ongoing rise that will continue for a while.

If the market takes a significant reversal back down, I will sell my triple

Look at the current table of the THREE MAJOR MARKETS below. The Nasdaq and the S&P500 are holding near theirrecent rises. (As usual, the DJIA is just limped along.)

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Look below at how well the three QQQ ETFs are staying in order! The day’s rises were very close to 1, 2, 3proportions.

The 3 versions of the QQQ are behaving very well, with gains today (Thursday) of 0.3%, 0.7% and 1.0%

Note the TQQQ chart looks a lot like the Nasdaq.

What I am about is the triples.. The TQQQ dipped 21% from the highest price in Februaryto the bottom of the dip in April. And the TripleQQQ was able to recover athird of the recent with a strong 13.2% rise including 4 rising days this week.

Notice how close the Triple QQQs above and the Nasdaq (prior page) look alike.

If you have gone short…. Please consider moving back into the Long TQQQ.

PAPER TRADING:  If you aren’t comfortable getting in the inverseQQQ (or triple inverse QQQ called the SQQQ), consider holding asmall position ON PAPER  (which means youdon’t buy any of the stock, but you track it on paper as if you had… to see howgreat the market treats you!)

For your information: The TRIPLE SHORT QQQ  is the SQQQ.

If you missed my note and chart about the SQQQ (the tripleshort QQQ), just think “inverse.”  

 When the QQQ rises,

·      The Triple QQQ (TQQQ) rises about 3 times as much. Wow!

 It may seem strange, but the charts will look verysimilar…. Until you do the math and see the 3x factor in the pricing.

>>> What can we do when the TQQQ is falling? e chart below) Just sell the TQQQ (or any other QQQyou own), and  wait in CASH….. or buythe inverse – the SQQQ.       

BOTTOM LINE: A triple of any stock that is winning is better than just holdingthe single stock.

I LOVE THE WAY MY 20-DAY TABLES (below) make themarket reversal soooo clear. I want to see at least one or two more strong,rising days to declare the market is back in UPTREND!

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The most recent three rising days (Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday) set the market upfor a new Uptrend.

>>>Friday’s2.0% rise is the biggest single day rise in the last 20 days. But it had lowervolume than the day before.

I may be jumping in a little early to declare a new Uptrend has begun. But my intuition tells methe market has shifted.  Wednesday was FLAT adding uncertainty to the market’s next move.        

>>> MY CURRENT ACTION PLAN:  

BE LONG IN THE Nasdaq  by holding the TQQQ.

Comment: I have not earned as much playing the S&P500so I stay with 100% of my investments in the TQQQ which have done better..

>>> The Accumulation/Distribution table for thecurrent market is shown below.

The strongest (green) “B” boxes are holding at 43%.  Add that to the 13% “A” rated stocks added tothe 56% of B rated stocks comes up with over half of all the stocks, 56%,have either A or B ratings which is quite strong.

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The above comment is my way of explaining to YOU that themarket is looking UP! And weare likely to see strong moves – either holding the 56% or seeing it grow.   Look at the sum of the As and Bs that shiftedfrom 44% As + Bs to today’s 56% As and Bs.                                                                                 

The only way we will know which way the market is moving isto watch the market….. each day.)  

Pink boxes above indicate ratings that have fallen over the prior week.

Green boxes above indicate ratings that have risenover the prior  week.

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>>> MY CURRENT ACTION PLAN:  

BE LONG IN THE Nasdaq  by holding the TQQQ.

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Comment: I have not earned as much playing the S&P500so I stay with 100% of my investments in the TQQQ which have done better..

>>> The Accumulation/Distribution table for thecurrent market is shown below.

The strongest (green) “B” boxes are holding at 43%.  Add that to the 13% “A” rated stocks added tothe 56% of B rated stocks comes up with over half of all the stocks, 56%,have either A or B ratings which is quite strong.

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Yes Acc/Dis table is in the online WebFlow vesiron

Note: Acc/Dis table is missing here but is in tonight’s newsletter pls ignore the odd green coloring in 3 boxes below. It doesn't show up when I create these tables. Also, please ignore the black circle in the middle of the table - it has no meaning.

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The above comment is my way of explaining to YOU that the market is looking UP! And we are likely to see strong moves – either holding the 56% or seeing it grow.   Look at the sum of the As and Bs that shifted from 44% As + Bs to today’s 56% As and Bs.  

The only way we will know which way the market is moving isto watch the market….. each day.)  

In the Accumulation/Distribution table:

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........Pink boxes above indicate ratings that have fallen over the prior week.

........Green boxes above indicate ratings that have risen over the prior  week.

Please consider reviewing this newsletter daily:  The markets can change direction and strength quickly! Notethat the percentage of As and Bs is holding between 58% and 62% for the last 5 weeks!

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NOTE THIS WARNING.  Holding onto a falling stock, (whether an ETFor the stock of a favorite company), is a quick way to lose your recent gains. If you play individual stocks and ETF’s, play carefully. Use the real returns(daily, weekly, monthly).

Of course, I do not sell a positionthat has been rising well after one or two small down days. But if you had asignificant loss over several days, especially if there is an increase inmarket distribution days (down days on higher volume), then stepping outand waiting in cash can help you save your portfolio for future rallies and letyou sleep at night. 

One additional “Word to the Wise”…

>>>MOST MARKETS FALLFASTER THAN THEY RISE. Beware of buying any new positions unlessthey are very healthy.

Wishing you best returns in your portfolio!.

Charlotte Hudgin,

The ArmchairInvestor newsletter