ARMCHAIR INVESTOR NEWSLETTER 2023-12-08F UPTREND Day 27. Friday: The Nasdaq & S&P500 ROSE 0.4+% with LOWER volume.
Note: The TQQQ (which I invest in during healthy Uptrends such as is currently happening in today’s market!
The Nasdaq is (as of the close of business on Friday) just 11.2%below its all-time high (which means the Nasdaq must rise 12.6% to match the prior high. I doubt that the Nasdaq will make that run in the next 20days. But a nice rise between today and the new year would give us a start on a new Uptrend!
What I would really like to see is the Nasdaq rising next year to a new all-time high!
Let’s see if the Nasdaq (and therefore the QQQ) can keep rising through 2024 to match or exceed the 2021 high! And Please, do not get greedy! I will tell you if this Uptrend starts to fail on page 1 of this newsletter.
Looking at the three major indexes above and note: The poor DOW just can’t seem to get ahead…. as usual.
I hope you have followed the TRIPLE QQQ (TQQQ) and are enjoying its amazing gains.
>>> If you are new to this newsletter, please note that we don’t always use the TQQQ. But when the market is rising so powerfully (as it has for most of this year), I will be happy to get 3 times the gains using the TQQQ – the ETF (exchange traded fund that targets at growing this investment at 2.5 to 3 times the QQQ .
NOTE: I will continue to highlight the TQQQ in strong Uptrends, and the inverse SQQQ (the triple SHORT QQQ) in falling markets. Why not let the market do the heavy lifting while we just enjoy the gains?
AN ENCOURAGING THOUGHT:
The last 5 weeks were all rising weeks and the QQQ is quite a winner over that period.Will this market continue higher, to break through to a new high? Looking back,I see a high of 403.43 on November 22, 2021. Good news: the QQQ is just 0.3% below that high.
Looking back at this market since2020, I am sooo glad I look for the charts’ messages and found it in the QQQ. I hope you did, too.
ON TO THURSDAY’S MARKET:
The Nasdaq continues to be stuck around 14,000. Will that level predict the end of 2023? Stay tuned. Only time will tell
I will focus more on the KISS advice from Investors.com founder William O’Neil and advice from Fred Richards, a good Dallas friend of mine and a long-term friend of William O’Neil – from the time they were both in SMU (Southern Methodist University here in Dallas), until O’Neil’s recent passing.
The growing health of this market can be seen in the increase in the percent of stocks with A or B ratings in the table below rising from just 21% 4 weeks ago to 57% on Tuesday. I am much more excited about buying individual stocks today than I was a month ago..
As you scan down the chart it is easy to see this is a nicely rising period.
On the 20-day history of the Nasdaq’s daily prices below, where are today? Yes, the Nasdaq is at a 7- quarter high, ….Just off 2022’s last quarter’s high.
Back to the second half of the ARMCHAIR INVESTOR NEWSLETTER. Those great tables.
First take a glance at the last 20 days of the Nasdaq. Do you like what you see?
November was a STELLER RISE IN TOTAL! Yes, it dropped a bit in the last 6 days.
The Nasdaq is now down 0.8% off its 11/20 recent high.
NOTE: I have gone back to my old way of coloring the Nasdaq daily closing price:
· When the closing price is below the prior prices, it will be orange.
· When the closing price hits a new high on this table, it will be highlighted in green, pointing to its growth!
Please be sure to check in DAILY in this market. You don’t want to be caught with a market that turns back down without your getting out!
Notice the ratings on the Accumulation/Distribution counts are rising nicely. The percent of A ratings just walked higher every week for the last month.
And the total of stocks with A or B ratings (rising stocks) rose in just4 weeks, from 43% off all stocks to 84%. WOW! – Just 4 weeks!
That points to a nicely, consistently rising market!
NOTE THIS WARNING. Holding onto a falling stock, whether an ETF or the stock of a favorite company, is a quick way to loose your recent gains. If you play individual stocks and ETF’s, play carefully. Use the real returns (daily, weekly, monthly)
>>>> Remember….. down is down!
Of course I do not sell a position that has been rising well after one or two small down days. But if you had a significant loss over several days, especially if there is an increase in market distribution days (down days on higher volume), then stepping out and waiting in cash can help you save your portfolio for future rallies and let you sleep at night.
FOR MONDAY, I SUGGEST YOU WATCH THE OPENING OF THE MARKET AND SEE HOW THE QQQ SHOWS UP. IF THE MARKET OPENS with a significant DROP, YOU MIGHT CONSIDER WAITING IN CASH.
REMEMBER:_____EVEN IF CASH IS A VALID POSITION,…in a fast rising market, you should consider holding a position that allows you to position your portfolio to rise with the market (or a multiple of it.) Stay tuned! And watch daily!
Those birds just aren’t going anywhere!
Stay tuned! Those birds just aren’t going anywhere!
One additional “Word to the Wise”…
>>>>>--- MOST MARKETS FALL FASTER THAN THEY RISE. Beware of buying any new positions unless they are very healthy.
Wishing you big returns in your portfolio!.
I APPRECIATE YOUR CONTRIBUTIONS FOR SUPPORTING THIS NEWSLETTER. I USUALLY SPEND MORE THAN 4 HOURS RESEARCHING THE IDEAS IN THIS NEWSLETTER, CALCULATING ALL THE DATA I NEED, WRITING THE TEXT FOR THE NEWSLETTER AND…. FORMATING THE NEWSLETTER.
I WELCOME YOUR COMMENTS ON THE MINOR CHANGES IN TODAY’S NEWSLETTER (as described in the notes.)
Thank you for your kind feedback and ideas. Please keep sending them.