2024-02-08H: S&P500 steps a smidge higher to create another all-time high at 4997.91! But compare S&P5 to the High-flying Nasdaq!

2024-02-08H: S&P500 steps a smidge higher to create another all-time high at 4997.91! But compare S&P5 to the High-flying Nasdaq!

NOTE:  My service that sends out notice to my readers when this newsletter is published, has added an extra level of security that has to be done before sending out the nightly message that the newsletter is out. This step is to ensure the email list is not spamming folks who do not want it. But their instructions on how to get approved for their new security are difficult to follow.  Sooooo. I cannot send out the message that tells you this newsletter has been sent.

>>>>>I hope to get it figured out over the weekend.Please expect the weekend Armchair Investor Newsletter to be out by 1 p.m.Sunday.

On with tonight’s newsletter: First, let me apologize for the inappropriate Etsy ads that showed up on my computer after clicking on the Investors.com fields.  I hope you did not see what I found.

How about some good news!  The S&P500 hit another new high Thursday.

But here is an important lesson to remember when comparing the performance of stocks or indexes on charts……  Who “looks like” the winner, may not be the winner. The actual percentages are the test!.

In this contest:

·       the S&P500 ran up 21.4% and

·      the Nasdaq ran up 50.9% (the clear winner.)

Lesson learned? (The picture is may not reveal the true winner.  DO THE MATH!

And note:  I will not waste time playing with the DJIA MARKET ACTION.

Trust that I will continue to track the S&P500’s performance. But I won’t waster your time unless it has a move worth taking your time to consider it.

NOTE for the last 23 years I’ve been following the QQQs,and then the TQQQ and the SQQQs. Last  weekend nailed down my investing plan.

MY PLAN:  Simply it’s just 3 steps:

·       Be in the TQQQ (triple long QQQ) when the market is rising.

·      Be in the SQQQ(triple short QQQ) when the market is falling hard,

·       And wait in CASH if the market is changing direction or is just “flakey.”

Don’t you want this simple way to make3x the returns?

And if you ever get spooked, CASH is always a safe position. You may not make as much as being in a rising triple ETF but you will sleep better at night if you don’t extend past your comfort level. And a little practice will sure show you what you did right and what you did wrong, If you are willing to examine the big wins and losses.  

Could it be any easier?  I have played the triple Note QQQ and inverse QQQ for years; ….even  before I had made much money in them.  They made sense then and they make more sense now.

So I have my job laid out.

·      Hang on to the TQQQ when the market is rising.

·      Move to CASH when the market is unclear.

·      Change to SQQQ (the short Qs) when the market is falling.

I MUST complement the QQQ and SQQQ ETF managers!  They deliver on their promise to ride the TQQQ up about 2.5X to 3X times the QQQ. In a squirely market even2.3% for the TQQQ is better than the single QQQ.

Look at the single QQQ return on the table below.  Would you prefer to be“conservative” and earn only the single Nasdaq’s 1.7%? I can’t promise the TQQQ and SQQQ will always get those high returns. But earning more than the single QQQ is OK with me.!

How well did the TQQQ do Tuesday? Look below. A quiet day with a perfect 1, 2, 3 relationship on today’s price changes.

>>> Note The daily differences can add up. Close is good enough for me!

Remember: The triple ETFs play a big game… and so are you if you follow this newsletter. Not every day will be a rising day. Most importantly, the QQQ, QLD and TQQQ moves have been closely aligned with their 1X, 2X and 3X targets.

>>> I happily put my investment in the TQQQ as long as the market is rising, being very pleased with whatever slight variation of 3x that they earn.

(If you have a better investment vehicle to use for the 3xreturn, please let me know.)

Turning to the major indexes (Yawn): As usual, the Nasdaq moved the most, the DJIA made the smallest move, and the S&P500 was very close to an average of the two.  

If you are investing based on the major indexes near the start of this newsletter, know that you cannot buy the Nasdaq index.  That is why I spend time on the ETFs instead.

>>> MY PLAN FOR FRIDAY:

REMEMBER: I DO NOT KNOW HOW TO PICK THE TOP OR THE BOTTOM OF A RUN until I see them in the rearview mirror.

But I usually get closer to the tops and bottoms than most traders.

If I sell the TQQQ because its price is dropping, I can go to cash or the inverse as appropriate index to protect my capital,

If the ETF resumes upward progress, I can always JUMP back in to the TQQQ.

>>> NOTE: The nice thing about the TQQQ is -- it can make a lot of money for you when it is rising.  

THE BAD NEWS ABOUT THE TRIPLE QQQs –BOTH the TQQQ and the SQQQ: You can QUICKLY LOOSE THOSE GAINS IN A QUICK MARKET TURNAROUND IF YOU ARE NOT PAYING ATTENTION.  

IF YOU ARE GOING TO PLAY IN THE TRIPLE ETF UNIVERSE, YOU HAVE TO WATCH IT EVERY DAY ….. OR BE WILLING TO BE UNPLEASANTLY SURPRISED (DISAPPOINTED) WITH A QUICK SWITCH IN THE MARKET DIRECTION.

>>>> Really….How long does it take to look at the current price chart? Just a wink if you have it set up on your phone or computer

I AM AMAZED AT HOW FEW DOWN DAYS  the Nasdaq has in the last 20 trading days!

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What I like best about the current MARKET FACTORS, COUNTS & RATINGS table below is the number of Accumulation days (5)versus the Distribution days (3) it is currently racking up.

That ratio gives me a good sense of the strength and direction of the current market. If the recent move of 6UP days and 4 DOWN days confuses you, note that I do not count a day’s move unless it was at least 0.2% up or down (which these did.)

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Due to some technical problems, I have NOT UPDATED the following section of today’s newsletter for two days.

What should you do when the market starts falling (and it always does…. eventually.)?

Just read this newsletter that night and I will give you a simple solution based on what the market is doing then.

>>>>>REMEMBER:  I do NOT know how to:

·      Get in at the bottom or

·      Get out at the top.

·      But I have consistently gotten closer than most other advisors…. And that timing has returned significant growth in my portfolio and those report from elsewhere.

Are you concerned that the market may have risen as much as it can for the moment? You might be right … but I’m not worried.

>>> The current Uptrend is to still showing moderate strength.  

NOTE:  IF YOU EVER SEE AN EMAIL FROM ME IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY (which happens rarely), consider giving it a quick read. It MIGHT include a change of strategy you can implement during the day to reduce your losses as the market falls or to save more of your prior wins.

·      Remember:The market and individual stocks continue in the direction they are going…until they don’t.

>>>> Please read this newsletter nightly to be sure you don’t miss my notes on when and where the big growth (or fall) is happening!  

I hope you have enjoyed an investment in the TQQQ (triple QQQ.)  They have grown almost 4 times the single QQQ this year. ….. But remember…. The TQQQ also can fall at 3 (or more)times the QQQ.  

What to do about the high volatility of the TQQQ?

>>>I suggest you read at least the first two pages of this newsletter each night.  This action will keep you tapped into the current market. And remember:

·      I do NOT know how to get in at the market bottoms and out at the tops. ----- I just get closer than most others. Note on the above table the price/volume action

of the last 20 days. Only 3 days were Distribution days –when the price dropped and the volume rose, indicated some serious selling.

>>>>>FINALLY: REMEMBER:

In the stock market,…

“What goes UP, UP, UP….. eventually goes DOWN, DOWN, DOWN! “

Look below at the amazing percentage of stocks that have “A” or “B” ratings – Even after a drop from recent A+B showing 68%.... today’s 55% As+Bs is still pleasantly strong.!!!

Thursday’s  Accumulation/Distribution table:

Please consider reviewing this newsletter daily: .The markets can change direction and strength quickly!

Note that the percentage of As and Bs took hit over the last 4 weeks– a drop from 73% three weeks ago to only 58% on Friday! >>>>>  Yikes!

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NOTE THIS WARNING.  Holding onto a falling stock, (whether an ETF or the stock of a favorite company), is a quick way to lose your recent gains.If you play individual stocks and ETF’s, play carefully. Use the real returns(daily, weekly, monthly)

>>>> Remember…..down is down!

Of course I do not sell a position that has been rising well after one or two small down days. But if you had a significant loss over several days, especially if there is an increase in market distribution days (down days on higher volume), then stepping out and waiting in cash can help you save your portfolio for future rallies and let you sleep at night.

REMEMBER:_____EVEN IF CASH IS A VALID POSITION,…in a fast rising market, you should consider holding a position that allows you to position your portfolio to rise with the market (o r a multiple of it.) Stay tuned! And watch daily!

Stay tuned!    Those birds just are back and they brought some friends!

One additional “Word to the Wise”…

>>>>>--- MOST MARKETS FALL FASTER THAN THEY RISE. Beware of buying any new positions unless they are very healthy.

Wishing you big returns in your portfolio!.

I APPRECIATE YOUR CONTRIBUTIONS FOR SUPPORTING THIS NEWSLETTER.  

I USUALLY SPEND  MORE THAN 4HOURS FOR EACH ARMCHAIR INVESTOR NEWSLETTER:

·      RESEARCHING THE IDEAS IN THIS NEWSLETTER,

·      CALCULATING ALL THE DATA I NEED,

·      WRITING THE TEXT FOR THE NEWSLETTER AND….

·      FORMATTING THE NEWSLETTER.  (Today it was more like 5 hours.)

I WELCOME YOUR COMMENTS ON THE MINOR CHANGES IN TODAY’S NEWSLETTER (as described in the notes.) 

Thank you for your kind feedback  and ESPECIALLY FOR YOU WHO HAVE DECIDED TO MAKE A MONTHLY CONTRIBUTION.

Charlotte Hudgin, The Armchair Investor

CharlotteDH100@mail.com

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