1/13/2023F UPTREND New Uptrend rises for 6 days in a row! Is this a Santa Claus Rally? (Expanded version)
This updated version includes all of the first version plus additional analysis of the current market
THE MARKET’s MESSAGE: Market in Healthy UPTREND
Over the last 2 weeks, the market has changed to a very strong rising market. The Nasdaq had 6 rising days in a row as of last Friday. The S&P500 had 5 rising days and one that was “flat” (-0.08%.) Then....
>>> WOW!! Friday added another rising day for the Nasdaq, now SIX rising days in a row (1/6/23 to 1/13/23), the first group of 5 rising days in 6 months.These 5-days CONFIRM THE NEW UPTREND.
(Note the S&P500 also rose during the 5 days with one exception – day 2 was Flat.)
>>>After the January 6 follow-through day signaled a new Uptrend, the next 2 days of this Uptrend showed a tentativeness with lower volume. But the market was committed as it continued to rise. The buyers agreed and jumped in!
In the chart above, notice the Nasdaq dropped almost back to its October 2022 low while the S&P500 used that time to return to its200-day line in December 2022 and again this week. The S&P500 continues to out-perform the Nasdaq.
>>>> Will the market have a Santa Claus rally this year? (Have you heard of the Santa Clause rally? A rise in after Christmas through January of the new year)
Jeffrey Hirsch gave a history-based interview with Investor’s Business Daily which I found most educational. I always admired Jeff’s dad (Yale Hirsch)back in the 90’s and bought several of their annual Stock Trader’s Almanacs.The 2023 Almanac is available on Amazon and is full of stock market facts youprobably didn’t even know to ask about. I have several on my shelves. Learn morefrom Jeffrey Hirsch himself by watching his interview with two IBD Pro’s. If you don’t know about the Santa Clause rally, listening to this whole interview is well worth your time.
Paired “experts” give their take on the current market to answer, "Will we have a 'Yes' to the Santa Claus Rally? or a 'No' to the Santa Claus Rally?"
(I did not pair them up – I just looked down the YouTube“Market Direction” recordings and found these pairs. Perhaps someone in YouTube has a good sense of humor!
What’s my point? I will go with Jeffrey Hirsch's advice…. but will keep my eyes open.
Here's the week's results:
Note the number of Accumulation days with "A" or "B" ratings rose substantially last week:
The number of Accumulation days over the last 10 days (listed in the MARKET FACTORS table below) equaled the number of Distribution days over the last a 20 days . But when they occurred is the big difference. Jump down one more table to find the answer.
All of the distribution days occurred 9 to 20 days ago,
All of the accumulation days occurred 11 t- 1 day ago.
It is clear the market changed its personality from selling stocks to buying stock just about 2 weeks ago.
Wishing you, "Many Happy Returns,"
The Armchair Investor Newsletter
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