1/18/2023W UPTREND Market has small pullback, holding near 2023 high

1/18/2023W UPTREND  Market has small pullback, holding near 2023 high

THE MARKET’s MESSAGE: Market in Healthy UPTREND

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After the Nasdaq’s 7 rising days (Wow!), Wednesday’s 1.2% pullback was not asurprise. Every rising market has pullbacks. This drop does not necessarily predict a downturn, but it is keeping me largely in CASH.

I will continue to hold my portfolio’s QQQ position believing the rising market is not over. And I will watch it each day.

Since the market woke up after the New Year’s holiday, the leading indexes have shined nicely. Here’s the StockCharts.com candle sti]ock 2-month chart showing what I suspect was a contrived dip at the end of the year, to make the start of 2023 look stronger. The late December 2-week tumble of 11.7% on top of the losses last year did not add much extra pain.  But it allowed the Nasdaq to pop 8.0% in this new year, starting off with a "BANG!"

note: The Nasdaq hasn’t caught up with its mid-December high. (See the Nasdaq composite chart from StockCharts.com below.)  Will the market fully recover to the recent December highs?  Or was Wednesday’s 1.2%drop the end of this rise?

I close this opening section with a quote from today’s 1/18/23 Big Picture column (at www.investors.com)

“With so much uncertainty about the new year, a cautious outlook seems prudent. Long-term trends and investing norms are shifting. Investors must watch carefully for sector changes and make smart stock picks.”

Turn to the ACCUMULATION/DISTRIBUTIONtable below. (I repeat yesterday’s notes in case you missed them.)

Notice the 18% increase instocks with an “A” or “B” rating over the last 2 weeks consistent with the recent serious buying.

>>>> And those institutional investors spend a lot time and money analyzing the market. Yet you, the individual investor, have one big advantage over the institutional investors.  Do you know what it is? This is an advantagethe big players can never take away from you.

.....While an institutional investor may spend 6 months buying a full position in a new stock (they do not want to push the price up with huge purchases), you can see the start of new rally and buy100% of your intended position in “1 click!,” riding it up as the institutions slowing push it higher with their long-term buying strategy.

And the institutional investors can never take this timing advantage away from you!  They are big and slow ….. but YOU are small,fast and nimble.

NOTE in the ACCUMULATION/DISTRIBUTION table below the BIG GAINS in the stockswith “As + Bs” growth. That’s an 18% increase in A and B rated stocks in just 2 weeks, as the stocks that were sold off in the last few weeks of last year,were repurchased to make the start of the new year look good!

Note: the mediocre ratings in the MARKET FACTORS table below.  Do not be alarmed. This is the result of the end-of-year dip.

As shown in the next MARKET ACTION table of the last 20 trading days:

·      The last four days showed a slowdown in the recent rise

·      Tuesday was a flat day showing uncertainty about the recent 3-week rise

·      Wednesday had the first distribution day in the last 11 days ago.

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STOCK WATCHING:  Send your suggestion on which stocks to follow in this newsletter.  I am looking for just one stock at a time, for training purposes.

Wishing you, “Many Happy Returns.”

CharlotteHudgin, The Armchair Investor,  (214)995-6702

www.ArmchairInvestor.com   (214)995-6702   editor@armchairinvestor.com

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