12/09/22H Uptrend – All indexes end the week ABOVE their 50-day lines
In the Nasdaq’s last 6trading days, only one day was a rising day (Thursday) but it was nothing exciting (up 1.1%.) What’s more interesting is the support the Nasdaq found at 11,000 over he last 5 weeks.
In fact, if it feels like the market hasn’t done much for you in the last 2 1/2 months, I am with you!
Here’s my focus on just the Nasdaq over that time: In total…….BORING.
Yes, there were some nice rises, but the market has taken back all it has given us over the last 10 weeks.. 4 ½ weeks. Market makers like to find popular ordinal numbers and the last 4 ½ weeks provided 11,000 as a support level.
If you look back to June of this year, you will see more 11,000 support (although it is a little messier.)
LOOKING FOR STOCKS TO ADD TO YOUR PORTFOLIO ? IBD’s “Stocks on the Move” is always an interesting column to watch.
Here are the top 4 stocks on that list (ranked by % price moves.)
Again, I look for the final bottom before the market turns back up into a new Uptrend.. But I don’t see the external financial factors to predict that move, yet.
So I advise some caution in your investing. I am asking the market to “Show me the money” for a new Uptrend but it is not responding yet.
Winners are out there. The Accumulation/Distribution table shows an extraordinary 56% of all stocks have strong “A” or “B” ratings. (see that table later in this newsletter.)
My analysis of the Accumulation/Distribution data is – It is still EXTRAORDINARY! The percent of stocks that are rising well (A or B ratings) has been “over half” in the last 4 weeks. Even though the As + Bs percent has dropped over the last week, it is still 56% - over half of all stocks over $5 have A or B ratings.
If you are hesitant to invest in new stocks in a market that continues to wander sideways, remember: CASH is a position. And in time of the market wandering sideways, if you can’t land winning stocks, cash is a good option.
The one thing NOT TO DO, is stop monitoring your holdings. A quick daily review is crucial to catching market moves early.
As I step back and look at the whole MARKET FACTORS table (a page + below.), I see a lot of strength:
· Accumulation versus Distribution day count,
· Uptrend for 32 days,
· Market accumulation “B” ratings for all the indexes.
But weaknesses are showing up:
Count of Up and Down days in the last 10 days is 2 Up days to 6 down days. Where are the other 3 days? They all moved less than +/- 0.2%, a sign of market uncertainty.
As I step back and look at the Nasdaq chart above and the whole MARKET FACTORS table, I see overall strength:
· Market in Uptrend for 34 days (count corrected today),
· Accumulation v Distribution day count is a strong 5 to 4.
· Market accumulation “B” ratings for all their indexes.
But weaknesses are showing up:
· Count of Up and Down days in the last 10 days is 2 Up days to 6 down days. Where are the other 2 days? They both moved less than +/- 0.2%, a sign of market uncertainty.
· Overall, the major indexes remain down for the year.
Market Factors are mixed.
Of the last 20 trading days, focus on the most recent 10..... ONLY ONE ACCUMULATION DAY!
· I recently noted that I have missed incrementing the trend day count. It has been corrected to the October 24 day 1 restart of the new Uptrend. At 5 days for most weeks (holidays excluded), the Downtrend day count is 34 trading days since the start of the latest Uptrend.
In a healthy Downtrend, I would expect to see rising days have lighter volume. That combination means that the majority of market players are not buying, even though the price has risen. The only reason they would not buy if the price is rising is that they expect the index to start falling.
STOCK WATCHING: Send your suggestion on which stock to follow in this newsletter. I am looking for just one stock at a time, for training purposes.
Wishing you and yours a happy and safe holiday season.
Charlotte Hudgin, The ArmchairInvestor, (214)995-6702
www.ArmchairInvestor.com (214)995-6702 email@example.com