2023-11-10M UPTREND Day 14. Nasdaq and S&P500 hold Monday’s aggressive3-week Highs
After the last 3 days of last week were all +0.1% rises for the Nasdaq and the S&P500, you might have joined me in wondering “What is going on in this market?” I don’t remember ever seeing any market that flat!
What were they waiting for? What are you waiting for?
Remember, I rarely buy individual stocks. But this one certainly has an interesting story. When I read the hype over the weekend and today, I was curious what ell,
Well, here it is… NVDA’s daily chart and,below, the weekly charts:
What do you see in the weekly chart below? A 367% rise in since 10/14/2023(13 months ago.)
And recently….. a 3 month dip and return. If you bought NVDA at the September 1, 2023 high, you could have waited for 3 months to return to Monday’s high with almost a zero gain.
Do I wish I had invested in NVDA at the low in October of last year?? Of course. But that thought only wastes my time. Will I buy and NVDA tomorrow? Yes, Enough to keep my attention on it while we all learn what it can do.
Before you buy one share or 1000,please note,…. we, the non-insider traders, can, at best, jump on the stock’s tail and see where it rides to. Yes, I do believe it has more to gain. And it will be fun to watch day-to-day.
But I also have a personal loss limit which will ensure I can take my money from a loser and continue to play the game.
The lines to buy these AI tools are long. The prices are sky high. And I do not have a clue how to get onboard this rocket ship except by buying the stock of the manufacturer – NVIDIA (ticker NVDA.)
At $504.09 a share you may think it is too expensive. Remember…. You can buy just one share….. and get bragging rights for the rest of your life.
ENOUGH FUN,… ON TO THE GENERAL MARKET
>>>> When a price table goes “white” and looks like FRIDAY’s MARKET ACTION table below,… Caution is advised! Things are not moving.
The decline in volume on top of the “Almost No Change” in prices, tells me the market is waiting for clarifying news. If you listen carefully, you may well hear a lot of heads being scratched. I did not see a good reason for the recent market rise -- maybe the traders are starting to agree with me.
After that annoying 4 day flat period last week, the Nasdaq composite index rose 1.1% Monday with average volume the highest daily volume in the last 2 months. And it sat there for the next 3 days confirming its intention to hold hat ground (but no guarantees.). Monday paid off with another 1.1% gain on higher volume (but below-average volume.).
I was excited about the Nasdaq’s 1.1%rise Monday.– it is getting close its July high of this year. And that was as midge below the all-time high of about 16,000 in 2021,
HERE’S YOUR BIG WINNER TODAY, THE TQQQ,AGAIN, up 158.4% this year.
The recent rises in the market may well turn out to hold….. or the market could hesitate and give a lot of it back.
Note: One thing I know…. I will NOT PARTICIPATE in much of a “giveback!” If the market takes a noticeable dip,I am likely to just move to CASH.
One of the big advantages of being a small player among giants (in trading size) is that we can get out of any position that is NOT WORKING in just a few keystrokes and sit on the sidelines while the big traders take days, weeks or months to unwind losing positions.
Look at the Accumulation/Distribution table below. Notice the number of A-rated and B-rated stocks has risen for the last 3 weeks. What does the table below tell you?
The following table showing year-to-date returns of 45.0% to 149.5%. If you did not participate in the TQQQ party, I invite you to consider it. One way to learn about the value of the TQQQ is to
DO NOT LOSE YOUR RECENT GAINS BY “WISHING and HOPING”the market uptrend will continue if it starts falling. >>>>> Simply sell your TQQQ (or QQQ ) and wait on the sidelines, enjoying your big 2023gains…. While you wait in CASH.
And the GREAT NEWS for those of you who trusted me to buy the TQQQ (Triple QQQ) for yourself,…… CONGRATULATIONS,again! And, “Yes!” none of us knew to get in the market at the end of Thursday October 23, 2023. I’m just stretching it to show you how big the rise is – and how big the difference is between the single and triple ETFs.
>>>> How do you put that big rise in your pocket? First,you have to be in the TQQQ when the market is rising. And peak at it every day. If it starts to fizzle,you can sell the TQQQ and put the return in your account as CASH. (I usually give it a few down days to tell me if the fizzle isn’t just a momentary pullback.
>>>>> LOOK AT THE HEALTH OF THE NEW UPTREND:
The table below shows the growth in “A” and “B” rated stocks! Wow, 21% to 54%! (sORRY- There was no update to the Market's A, B, C, D and E ratings tonight.
Here is Friday's for your reference.
Here are Friday's comments about the Accumulation/Distribution days over the last 4 weeks.
· In the last 3 weeks, the %of stocks with A or B accumulation ratings rose from 21% to 54%. Wow!
· But I wonder if that is all we will get at this moment?????
I see two important pieces of information:
· The market is getting juicy – 3 weeks ago only 21%of all the stocks (over $5) had A or B accumulation ratings…
· Now look at what happened to the market over those 3 weeks – On last Friday (11/17), 54% of all stocks (over $5) had A or B ratings. That is a 157% increase in top rated (A+B)stocks!!!!
Happy shopping guys! You could throw darts in this market and hit winners! (But please choose your purchases a little more carefully!
Look at my MARKET FACTORS, COUNTS & RATINGS table below. THERE IS NOT ONE DISAPPOINTING RATING. E en the % the Major Indexes have dropped below prior lows is really thin. But the % the indexes are above the 2022-23 low is exciting
I do NOT know how to get in at the bottom… or out at the top.
But I usually get closer than most!
And you can usually make some nice returns with the signals I talk about in this newsletter.
NOTE THIS WARNING. Holding onto a falling stock, whether an ETF or the stock of a favorite company, is a quick way to loose your recent gains. Remember….. down is down. Of course I do not sell a position that has been rising well after one or two small down days. But if you had a significant loss over several days, especially if there is an increase in market distribution days (down days on higher volume), then stepping out and waiting in cash can help you save your portfolio for future rallies and let you sleep at night.
FOR MONDAY, I SUGGEST YOU WATCH THE OPENING OF THE MARKET AND SEE HOW THE QQQ SHOWS UP. IF THE MARKET OPENS WITH A significant DROP, YOU MIGHT CONSIDER WAITING IN CASH.
Stay tuned! Those birds just aren’t going anywhere!
REMEMBER:_____EVEN IF CASH IS A VALID POSITION,…with a fast rising market, you should consider holding a position that allows you to position your portfolio to rise with the market (or a multiple of it.) Stay tuned! Those birds just aren’t going anywhere!
One additional “Word to the Wise”…
>>>>>--- MOST MARKETS FALL FASTER THAN THEY RISE. Beware of buying any new position unless they are very healthy.