2023-11-16H UPTREND Day 10. Market UPTREND holds, adding today’s small rises.
The plus or minus 0.1% moves on the Major indexes were barely a sneeze. The good news is that the market did NOT challenge the current Uptrend but it shows a lack of CONFIDENCE in the current Uptrend.
>>>> When a price table goes“white”! and looks like today’s MARKET ACTION table below,… Caution is advised!The decline in volume on top of the “No Change” in prices, tells me the market is waiting for clarifying news. If you listen carefully, you may well hear a lot of heads being scratched. I did not see a good reason for the recent market rise. And maybe the traders are starting to agree with me.
Please notice that Thursday’s modest(0.1%) rises repeated Wednesday’s flat days.. The market seems very uncertain about its immediate future. A bit of good news, the market is NOT running from a fight – it is, at least in this moment, HOLDING ITS GROUND.
Our recent rises in the market may well turn out to be correct and could even continue….. or the market could hesitate and give a lot of it back.
I will NOT PARTICIPATE in much of a “giveback!”One of the big advantages of being a small player among giants (in size) is that we can get out of any position that is NOT WORKING in just a few keystrokes and sit on the sidelines while the big traders take days, weeks or months to unwind losing positions.
On the Nasdaq chart below, note that after jumping higher on Tuesday, the market was strong enough to HOLD THOSE GAINS. But remember there are 2 parts of a market chart --- Price and Volume. On the chart below, Tuesday leap higher was exciting. And the Nasdaq is holding that gain. But the volume has calmed down and may indicate market uncertainty. PLEASE pay attention to your market charts. Just because the Nasdaq is holding above14,000 (which is very neat its 2023 high), I am not convinced that the rise will continue.
DO NOT LOSE YOUR RECENT GAINS BY “WISHING and HOPING” the market uptrend will continue if it starts falling. >>>>> Simple sell your TQQQ (or QQQ ) and wait on the sidelines, enjoying your big 2023 gains.
And the GREAT NEWS for those of you who trusted me to buy the TQQQ (Triple QQQ) for yourself,…… CONGRATULATIONS, again! And, “Yes!” none of us knew to get in the market at the end of Thursday October 23, 2023. I’m just stretching it to show you how big the rise is – and how big the difference is between the single and triple ETFs.
How do you put that big rise in your pocket? When the market starts to fizzle, you can sell the TQQQ and put the return in your account as CASH. (I usually give it a few down days to tell me if the fizzle is just a momentary pullback, or is it showing the rise is going “on hold.”)
Look at the rise in percentage of As + Bs! In the last 2 weeks, the % of stocks with A or B accumulation ratings rose from 24% to 54%. But I wonder if that is all we will get at this moment?????
DO NOTE THIS WARNING. Holding onto a falling stock, whether an ETF or the stock of a favorite company, is a quick way to loose your recent gains. Remember….. down is down. Of course I do not sell a position that has been rising well after one or two small down days. But if you had a significant loss over several days, especially if they is an increase in distribution days (down days on higher volume), stepping out and waiting in cash can help you save your portfolio for future rallies and let you sleep at night.
FOR TOMORROW, I SUGGEST YOU WATCH THE OPENING OF THE MARKET AND SEE HOW THE QQQ SHOWS UP. IF THE MARKET OPENS WITH A significant DROP, YOU MIGHT CONSIDER WAITING IN CASH.
Stay tuned! Those birds just aren’t going anywhere!
REMEMBER:_____EVEN IF CASH IS A VALID POSITION,…with a fast rising market, you should consider holding a position that allows you to position your portfolio to rise with the market (or a multiple of it.) Stay tuned! Those birds just aren’t going anywhere!
One additional “Word to the Wise”…
>>>>>--- MOST MARKETS FALL FASTER THAN THEY RISE. Beware of buying any new position unless they are very healthy.