2023-11-17F UPTREND Day 13. The Nasdaq and S&P500 hold aggressive3-week Highs.
The Nasdaq and S&P500 both shot up from their recent low over the last 3 weeks. The rises over those 3 weeks were consistent with their typical differences :
· The Nasdaq rose 12.1%
· The S&P500 rose 9.3%.
The Friday plus 0.1% moves on the Major indexes were barely a sneeze. The good news is that both the Nasdaq and the S&P500 rose the market did NOT challenge the current Uptrend.
>>>> When a price table goes “white”! and looks like today’s MARKET ACTION table below,… Caution is advised!Things are moving.
The decline in volume on top of the “Almost No Change” in prices, tells me the market is waiting for clarifying news. If you listen carefully, you may well hear a lot of heads being scratched. I did not see a good reason for the recent market rise -- maybe the traders are starting to agree with me.
After the Nasdaq jumped up on Tuesday, it stayed close to that new 2-month high on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, rising a modest 0.1% each day. The market seems very set about its immediate future.
A bit of good news,the market is NOT running from a fight – it is, at least in this moment, HOLDING ITS PRICING GROUND.
The recent rises in the market may well turn out to be correct and could even continue….. or the market could hesitate and give a lot of it back.I do not know what caused Tuesday’s jump but am glad it is holding.
Note: One thing I know…. I will NOT PARTICIPATE in much of a “giveback!” If the market takes a noticeable dip with higher volume, I am likely to just move to CASH.
One of the big advantages of being a small player among giants (in trading size) is that we can get out of any position that is NOT WORKING in just a few keystrokes and sit on the sidelines while the big traders take days, weeks or months to unwind losing positions.
Look at the Accumulation/Distribution table below. Notice the number of A-rated and B-rated stocks has risen for the last 3 weeks. What does the table below tell you?
The following table showing year-to-date returns of 45.0% to 149.5%. If you did not participate in the TQQQ party, I invite you to consider it. One way to learn about the value of the TQQQ is to make a small investment and watch it grow (or fall – we could be at a market top.)
DO NOT LOSE YOUR RECENT GAINS BY “WISHING and HOPING”the market uptrend will continue if it starts falling. >>>>> Simply sell your TQQQ (or QQQ ) and wait on the sidelines, enjoying your big 2023 gains…. While you wait in CASH.
And the GREAT NEWS for those of you who trusted me to buy the TQQQ (Triple QQQ) for yourself,…… CONGRATULATIONS,again! And, “Yes!” none of us knew to get in the market at the end of Thursday October 23, 2023. I’m just stretching it to show you how big the rise is – and how big the difference is between the single and triple ETFs.
>>>> How do you put that big rise in your pocket? First,you have to be in the TQQQ when the market is rising. And peak at it every day. If it starts to fizzle,you can sell the TQQQ and put the return in your account as CASH. (I usually give it a few down days to tell me if the fizzle isn’t just a momentary pullback.
LOOK AT THE HEALTH OF THE NEW UPTREND:
The 4 week table below shows the growth in “A” and “B” rated stocks! Wow, 21% to 54%!
· In the last 3 weeks, the %of stocks with A or B accumulation ratings rose from 21% to 54%. Wow!
· But I wonder if that is all we will get at this moment?????
I see two important pieces of information:
· The market is getting juicy – 3 weeks ago only 21%of all the stocks (over $5) had A or B accumulation ratings…
· Now look at what happened to the market over those 3 weeks – On last Friday (11/17), 54% of all stocks (over $5) had A or B ratings. That is a 157% increase in top rated (A+B)stocks!!!!
Happy shopping guys! You could throw darts in this market and hit winners! (But please choose your purchases a little more carefully!)
Although the market was quiet for the last 3 days of last week, NOTE: Since the NEW UPTREND began on November 1, the Nasdaq has had 4 accumulation days and only 1 minor distribution day. That is a nice confirmation of this Uptrend.
NOTE THIS WARNING. Holding onto a falling stock, whether an ETF or the stock of a favorite company, is a quick way to loose your recent gains. Remember….. down is down. Of course I do not sell a position that has been rising well after one or two small down days. But if you had a significant loss over several days, especially if they is an increase in market distribution days (down days on higher volume), stepping out and waiting in cash can help you save your portfolio for future rallies and let you sleep at night.
FOR MONDAY, I SUGGEST YOU WATCH THE OPENING OF THE MARKET AND SEE HOW THE QQQ SHOWS UP. IF THE MARKET OPENS WITH A significant DROP, YOU MIGHT CONSIDER WAITING IN CASH.
Stay tuned! Those birds just aren’t going anywhere!
REMEMBER:_____EVEN IF CASH IS A VALID POSITION,…with a fast rising market, you should consider holding a position that allows you to position your portfolio to rise with the market (or a multiple of it.) Stay tuned! Those birds just aren’t going anywhere!
One additional “Word to the Wise”…
>>>>>--- MOST MARKETS FALL FASTER THAN THEY RISE. Beware of buying any new position unless they are very healthy.