2023-11-21T UPTREND Day 15. The Nasdaq and S&P500 hold aggressive 3-week Highs.

2023-11-21T UPTREND Day 15. The Nasdaq and S&P500 hold aggressive 3-week Highs.

After the last 3 days of last week were all +0.1% rise for the Nasdaq and the S&P500, you might have joined me in wondering “What is going on in this market?” But markets always resolve their direction.

The Nasdaq is, quite clearly, in a galloping Uptrend. But note the volume has recently gotten softer (lower) as it approaches its recent July high.

Watch to see if the Nasdaq has the power to keep climbing higher… OR… will it hit its July high in a few days(possibly) and dip down again. (how frustrating! If that happens, don’t be too disappointed. The July high caused a lot of selling and a second visit to that level may have a repeat performance.

Remember, I rarely buy individual stocks. But Nvidia  one certainly has an intriguing story. When I read the hype over the weekend, I saw what the excitement was itall about. You might like to scan for articles on NVDIA for your own education.

NVDA’s chart for Tuesday is shown below. Nvdia appears stuck under its $500 level, but I’m not worried.

And recently…..NVDA had a 3 month dip and return to its August high. And note the power of the “return.”  

·       It took 7 weeks for NVDA to give up the 20% from the high near 500 to the low support level at 400.

·       But note it took only 3 weeks for NVDA to jump back to 500 on Monday.

The second run at a new high sometimes works better than the first.  Stay tuned!

Some friendly advice from Monday’s newsletter:  Before you buy one share or1000 of NVDA, please note,…. we, the non-insider traders, can, at best, jump on the stock’s tail and see where it rides to. Yes, I do believe NVDA will continue to rise (no guarantee).  And it will be fun to watch day-to-day.    

But I also have a personal loss limit which will ensure I can take my money out of a loser and continue to play the game with the next attractive stock.

The lines to buy these AI tools are long. The prices are sky high. And I do not have a clue how to get onboard this rocket ship except by buying the stock of the manufacturer – NVIDIA (ticker NVDA.)

At $499.44 a share you may think it is too expensive. Remember…. You can buy just one share….. and get bragging rights for the rest of your life if it rises as much as I and many other think it will.

ENOUGH FUN,… ON TO THE GENERAL MARKET

>>>> When a price table goes “white”  and looks like FRIDAY’s MARKET ACTION table below,… Caution is advised! Things are not moving.

The decline in volume on top of the “Almost No Change” in prices, tells me the market is waiting for clarifying news.  If you listen carefully, you may well hear a lot of heads being scratched.  I did not see a good reason for the recent market rise -- maybe the traders are starting to agree with me.

GOOD NEWS:  After that annoying 4 day flat period last week, the Nasdaq composite index rose 1.1%Monday with the highest daily volume in the last 2 months.

Tuesday’s 0.9% drop with slightly higher volume looks like a minor pause around the 500 level. I will keep an eye on NVDA and I encourage you to do the same.

 HERE’S YOUR BIG WINNER TODAY, THE TQQQ, AGAIN, up 3.6% today and up an amazing 158.4% this year! And is still rising.

I repeat Monday’s important lesson:

The recent rises in the  market may well turn out to hold….. or the market could hesitate and give a lot of it back.

Note: One thing I know…. I will NOT PARTICIPATE in much of a “giveback!” If the market takes a noticeable dip,I am likely to just move to CASH.

One of the big advantages of being a small player among giants (in trading size) is that we can get out of any position that is NOT WORKING in just a few keystrokes and sit on the sidelines while the big traders take days, weeks or months to unwind losing positions.

Look at the Accumulation/Distribution table below. Notice the number of A-rated and B-rated stocks has risen for the last 3 weeks. What does the table below tell you?

The following table showing year-to-date returns of 45.0% to 149.5%. If you did not participate in the TQQQ party, I invite you to consider it.  One way to learn about the value of the TQQQ is to

DO NOT LOSE YOUR RECENT GAINS BY “WISHING and HOPING”the market  uptrend will continue if it starts falling.  >>>>>Simple sell your TQQQ (or QQQ ) and wait on the sidelines, enjoying your big 2023gains…. While you wait in CASH.

And the GREAT NEWS for those of you who trusted me to buy the TQQQ (Triple QQQ) for yourself,……CONGRATULATIONS, again!  And, “Yes!” none of us knew to get in the market at the end of Thursday October 23, 2023. I’m just stretching it to show you how big the rise is – and how big the difference is between the single and triple ETFs.

>>>> How do you put that big rise in your pocket?  First,you have to be in the TQQQ when the market is rising. And peak at it every day. If it starts to fizzle,you can sell the TQQQ and put the return in your account as CASH. (I usually give it a few down days to tell me if the fizzle isn’t just a momentary pullback.

>>>>> LOOK AT THE HEALTH OF THE NEW UPTREND:

The table below shows the growth in “A” and “B” rated stocks! Wow, 21% to 54%!

·      In the last 3 weeks, the % of stocks with A or B accumulation ratings rose from 22% to59%. Wow!  

·      But I wonder if that is all we will get at this moment?????

I see two important pieces of information:

·       The market is getting juicy – 3 weeks ago only 22%of all the stocks (over $5) had A or B accumulation ratings…

·       Now look at what happened to the market over those 3 weeks – On last Friday (11/17),  59% of all stocks (over $5) had A or B ratings. That is a 168% increase in top rated (A+B) stocks!!!!

Happy shopping guys! You could throw darts in this market and hit winners! (But please choose your purchases a little more carefully!)

Look at my MARKET FACTORS, COUNTS  & RATINGS table below.  THERE IS NOT ONE DISAPPOINTING RATING.  Even the % the Major Indexes have dropped below prior lows is really thin. But the % the indexes are above the 2022-23 low is exciting.

NOTE THIS WARNING.  Holding onto a falling stock, whether an ETF or the stock of a favorite company, is a quick way to loose your recent gains. Remember….. down is down.  Of course I do not sell a position that has been rising well after one or two small down days. But if you had a significant loss over several days, especially if there is an increase in market distribution days (down days on higher volume), then stepping out and waiting in cash can help you save your portfolio for future rallies and let you sleep at night.

FOR MONDAY,I SUGGEST YOU WATCH THE OPENING OF THE MARKET AND SEE HOW THE QQQ SHOWS UP. IF THE MARKET OPENS WITH A significant DROP, YOU MIGHT CONSIDER WAITING IN CASH.

Stay tuned!    Those birds just aren’t going anywhere!

REMEMBER:_____EVEN IF CASH IS A VALID POSITION,…with a fast rising market, you should consider holding a position that allows you to position your portfolio to rise with the market (or a multiple of it.) Stay tuned!    Those birds just aren’t going anywhere!

One additional “Word to the Wise”…

>>>>>--- MOST MARKETS FALL FASTER THAN THEY RISE. Beware of buying any new position unless they are very healthy.

Wishing you big returns in your portfolio!

Charlotte Hudgin

The Armchair Investor

CharlotteDH100@mail.com

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