5/2/2023T UPTREND Day 23 (under PRESSURE) Market quiet, waiting for Federal Reserve Open Market Committee announcement on Wednesday 2 and 2:30p.m.

5/2/2023T UPTREND Day 23 (under PRESSURE)  Market quiet, waiting for Federal Reserve Open Market Committee announcement on Wednesday 2 and 2:30p.m.

THE MARKET’S MESSAGE:  Market volume will be light, waiting for Wednesday's Federal Reserve’s announcements at 2:00 and 2:30 p.m.

As I promised in Monday’s newsletter, the markets are waiting for the Wednesday reports from the Federal Reserve’s Open Market committee and the Fed chair.

When those announcements are made, I expect the market to drop as the Federal Reserve raises the discount rate at least one more time this year to slow this over-heated market.

Expect Wednesday to be quiet as we all wait for the Federal Reserve’s latest announcement on their interest rate.

Catch these 2 announcements (go to the bottom of any page on the Investor's Business Daily site except the home page. There you will see a link to their ECONOMIC CALENDAR. And on it you will see the link to watch the FOMC and Chair Powell's announcements.

·      Wednesday, 5/3  2p.m.  FOMC (Federal Reserve Open Market Committee) summary of committee action

·      Wednesday, 5/3  2:30 p.m. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Press Conference

The n it will be BACK TO BUSINESS……          

Key points made in tonight’s ACI newsletter:

How do you know when to get into and hold the QQQ.  It is, of course, your choice.  I do not tell you when to make those moves.  I tell you when I make those moves. Follow me or don’t. Your choice.  And this year's “Buy & Hold” 21% return is a very nice earnings over the first 4 months of 2023. Beware…..a “Buy & Hold” strategy, rarely out-performs the Armchair signals.  But this year, so far, it is an exception.

So far this year, the QQQ strategy has earned +8.9% over the first 4 months.  If it continues to earn that much, for both of the last two 3-month periods, it will earn 29.1% in2023.   I am NOT promising that return.  I just want you to see there is time to continue this year’s growth.

Note: The Armchair Investor strategy has outperformed the Buy & Hold strategy almost every year. But weak markets can be tough to beat.

If you have read the S&P500 is a nice, safe place to invest, I suggest you dump that thought immediately. I know it as a "safe" place to generate low returns.

The sleepy Monday was “as expected” … almost not price moves and lower volume.  Expect this again on Tuesday.  The market should take off on Wednesday afterthe Fed Chair’s interpretation of the current market.

>>>>I am pretty sure that the rest of this week will move faster. I’m expecting it to be to the upside, but I have seen Fed announcements that squash the market. I will wait to see the market’s reaction …. In the charts.

Looking over the MARKET ACTION OVER THE LAST 20 DAYS table below, I start with the “Type of Day” column to see if there is more serious buying (accumulation days) or more serious selling (distribution days.)

In the last 14 trading days, the Nasdaq had:

·       4accumulation (buying) days in the last 14 days

·       Only 1 distribution(selling ) days in the last 14 days (today’s selling action.)

·       8 days were “consistent with” an uptrend and only 2 days were “consistent with” a downtrend.

Every Uptrend has moments of hesitation. Let’s let the market tell us if this will be a market top or is just taking a breath.

 Reviewingthe MARKET FACTORS, COUNTS & RATINGS table below, note there is GOOD NEWS HERE!

·       The market is on the 22nd day of this Uptrend, that’s 4+ weeks.  Note: I usually make more money in an Uptrending market. Don’t you?

·       The RISING/FALLING RATIO OF LEADER STOCKS remains a neutral 1.0..

·       The Nasdaq Accumulation rating is a solid B (sorry about that D- for the S&P500and  E for the DJIA indicating they have more sellers than buyers.).If you hold some of those lagging indexes, I hope it’s not too much. I don't hold them and suggest you rethink that strategy if you do.

·      NOTE : The day’s closing price for all three indexes popped higher – again confirming the higher number of buyers than sellers in this market

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 The ACCUMULATION/DISTRIBUTION TABLE

The As and Bs now own 45% of all the stocks – almost half!  That tells me it should not be too hard to find some strong stocks to invest in when I am confident the market is rising again.  

Are you registered on the current www.ArmchairInvestor.com site?

>>>> If so, you will receive a BRIEF email from me after I post this newsletter each night to tell you, as soon as possible, when it is available for your review. If you don’t get that message, just click www.ArmchairInvestor.com website to get the list of all recent Armchair Investor newsletters.

>>>>>I appreciate any feedback you have for me. Please send comments and ideas to:

Editor2023@armchairinvestor.com

Wishing you, “Many Happy Returns.”

CharlotteHudgin, The Armchair Investor,  

www.ArmchairInvestor.com   (214)995-6702   editor2023@armchairinvestor.com  

2023 ACI NEWSLETTER sent via WEBFLOW

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